Rahul Gandhi's Bihar Mission Faces Setback Amid Alliance Tensions

Rahul Gandhi's Ongoing Efforts in Bihar

In a bid to strengthen the Congress party across the nation, Rahul Gandhi has been actively visiting Bihar over the past few months. So far in 2025, he has made a total of five trips to the state. During these visits, the former national president of Congress has engaged with Dalit voters, members of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), as well as youth and women, aiming to connect with them. To revitalize the party's organization, he has made significant changes, including replacing state in-charges and district presidents.

Strategic Goals for Upcoming Elections

Clearly, Rahul Gandhi's efforts are part of a broader strategy to fortify the Congress party in Bihar. One of the key objectives is to secure a greater number of seats in the upcoming assembly elections as part of the opposition's India alliance (Mahagathbandhan).

Challenges from RJD

However, Gandhi's 'Mission Bihar' has encountered a significant challenge from his own ally, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). The party's leader, Lalu Prasad Yadav, has introduced a formula that has left Congress feeling uneasy. While Congress aims to contest 70 assembly seats as it did in 2020, the RJD has outright rejected this proposal. It has become evident that Congress will not receive the same number of seats as in the previous election.

Seat Distribution Dynamics

In the 2020 assembly elections, the RJD contested 144 seats as the largest party in the Mahagathbandhan, while Congress was allocated 70 seats. Other parties like CPI-ML, CPI, and CPM also participated with smaller seat counts. This time, Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party, which previously aligned with the NDA, is now part of the opposition alliance. The RJD has made it clear that based on the number and capacity of political parties, Congress may only receive around 53 seats.

Negotiations and Future Prospects

Sources indicate that Tejashwi Yadav has proposed that the RJD will contest 140 seats instead of 144. CPI will receive 6 seats, and CPM will retain 4, while CPI-ML may see an increase to 25 seats. The VIP party is expected to contest 15 seats. Consequently, Congress, which previously aimed for 70 seats, may have to settle for approximately 53. Adjustments of 2-3 seats could still occur.

Potential Alliances and Outcomes

If figures like Pashupati Paras, Asaduddin Owaisi, Hemant Soren, and Akhilesh Yadav join the alliance for the Bihar assembly elections, all parties may need to compromise further. In such a scenario, Congress could end up with only 45-46 seats. Thus, under Lalu Yadav's initial formula, Congress might secure 53-55 seats, while the second formula could limit them to 45-46.

Historical Context and Current Dilemmas

It's worth noting that during the last assembly elections in 2020, Lalu Yadav was incarcerated. Allegations suggest that Congress leveraged his absence to pressure Tejashwi Yadav into conceding 70 seats. However, Congress only managed to win 19 of those seats. Many leaders within the opposition alliance believe that Congress's poor performance contributed to Nitish Kumar's return as Chief Minister. This time, Lalu Yadav is free and steadfast in his seat distribution strategy.

The Dilemma for Congress

The RJD's formula has placed Congress leaders in a difficult position. The ball is now in Rahul Gandhi's court to decide whether to accept the limited number of seats or negotiate with Lalu Yadav for a larger share. Interestingly, some Congress leaders are quietly discussing a third option: forming a third front with smaller parties and positioning themselves as the leading force in the elections.