Northeast India Faces Potential El Niño Impact on Monsoon
El Niño Predictions for Northeast India
Guwahati, March 19: Forecasters globally are warning of a possible El Niño this year, which could lead to another summer of below-average monsoon rainfall and elevated temperatures in Northeast India.
The region has already experienced five consecutive years of subpar monsoon rainfall. Last year, East and Northeast India recorded their second-lowest monsoon rainfall in 125 years, totaling 1089.9 mm, just above the 2013 record of 1065.7 mm.
According to the latest outlook from the US NOAA Climate Prediction Centre, there is a 62% chance that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026 and may continue at least until the end of that year.
The World Meteorological Organization has also indicated that the recent weak La Niña event is expected to transition into ENSO-neutral conditions, which could shift to a warming El Niño phase later this year.
El Niño is characterized by a significant rise in ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, along with alterations in tropical atmospheric circulation, including shifts in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns. Typically, it has effects that are opposite to those of La Niña.
In correspondence with a media outlet, Dr. Akshay Deoras, a Research Scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading, UK, noted that a robust El Niño usually diminishes the seasonal rainfall of the southwest monsoon across India and tends to elevate temperatures during the monsoon season.
“Some climate models are already hinting at this possibility. A common occurrence during El Niño years is an increased chance of monsoon breaks, which can affect the overall rainfall distribution throughout the season. This is particularly concerning for Northeast India, which has seen a decline in seasonal rainfall in recent years,” Deoras explained.
El Niño, which translates to 'little boy' in Spanish, is a natural climate phenomenon that features warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, occurring approximately every 2-7 years. Depending on its intensity, El Niño can lead to various impacts, including heightened risks of heavy rainfall and droughts in different regions worldwide.
While there is a notable link between ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) events and monsoon patterns, this relationship is not always consistent. Out of the 18 drought years in India over the last century, 13 have coincided with El Niño occurrences.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) states that while there is a statistically significant correlation between ENSO and Southwest Monsoon rainfall, it is not the sole factor affecting monsoon patterns in India. Other influences, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Eurasian snow cover, and various regional and global atmospheric conditions, also play a role.
In light of these forecasts, the State Bank of India has issued a report warning that the recent predictions for global weather patterns suggest a potential El Niño buildup in 2026. “Current trends in the Nino 3.4 SST Index indicate that ENSO is presently in a neutral phase but may shift to a positive state either in 2026 or later that year. Given that the Indian monsoon is affected by global weather patterns, this, combined with ongoing geopolitical crises (including fluctuations in fertilizer, natural gas, and Brent crude prices), is likely to impact inflation in 2026,” the report stated.
More definitive signals are expected to emerge by the end of May.