Northeast India Anticipates Below Normal Rainfall This Monsoon Season

The India Meteorological Department has revised its forecast for the upcoming southwest monsoon season, predicting below normal rainfall for most areas in Northeast India. While some regions may experience normal rainfall, the overall mean is expected to remain within the normal range. This follows five consecutive years of below normal rainfall in the region, raising concerns about the impact on agriculture and water resources. Assam has seen an excess in pre-monsoon rainfall, but the overall outlook for the monsoon season remains cautious. Read on for a comprehensive analysis of the weather predictions.

By Narendra Chaudhary May 31, 2026, 09:11 IST

Forecast for the Upcoming Monsoon

A file image of rain on city streets. (Representational Image)

Guwahati, May 31: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that the Northeast region is expected to experience below normal rainfall during the forthcoming southwest monsoon season.

The initial forecast released in April suggested a high likelihood of above normal rainfall in certain areas of Assam. However, the revised predictions now indicate that most of the Northeast will see below normal rainfall, with the exception of some regions in Arunachal Pradesh and select areas in central and northern Assam. A few other regions may receive normal rainfall as well.

Despite this, the overall mean rainfall for the Northeast during the four-month monsoon period is projected to fall within the normal range of 94 to 106 percent, according to the IMD.

On a national scale, most regions, excluding Kashmir, parts of Arunachal Pradesh, and the eastern coastline, are expected to receive below normal rainfall this season.

According to the forecast, the total seasonal rainfall across the country is anticipated to be around 90 percent of the long-term average, with a potential margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

From June to September 2026, the forecast indicates a high probability of below normal seasonal rainfall across most of the country, except for certain areas in northwestern and northeastern India, the eastern parts of the southern peninsula, and some regions in east-central India, where rainfall may be normal to above normal.

The Northeast has already faced five consecutive years of below normal monsoon rainfall. Last year, the region recorded its second lowest monsoon rainfall in 125 years, totaling 1089.9 mm, following the record low of 1065.7 mm in 2013.

In Assam, pre-monsoon rainfall has been 11 percent above normal. The state has received 547.3 mm of rainfall since March 1, compared to the normal of 494 mm.

Staff Reporter