Monsoon's Arrival in Kerala: What to Expect in the Coming Days

Monsoon Forecast for Kerala

New Delhi: According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the southwest monsoon is anticipated to reach Kerala within the next two to three days.

Typically, this seasonal weather pattern begins around June 1.

The weather agency indicated that conditions are favorable for the monsoon to progress into additional areas of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Lakshadweep Islands, and parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the upcoming days.

The forecast also suggests that the monsoon may extend into various regions of the southwest, west-central, east-central, and northeast Bay of Bengal, as well as the remaining areas of the southeast Bay of Bengal during this timeframe.

Previously, the IMD had forecasted the monsoon's arrival in Kerala on May 26. However, due to delays, they revised their prediction on May 29, suggesting it could occur the following week.

In a recent update, the IMD stated that the expected rainfall for the season would be below the normal levels.

India is projected to receive approximately 90% of its Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall this year.

The LPA represents the average rainfall recorded in a specific region over a long duration, typically spanning 30 to 50 years.

For India, the LPA of seasonal rainfall, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 centimeters.

If the rainfall during the monsoon season falls below 90% of the LPA, it is categorized by the IMD as 'deficient.'

One contributing factor to this year's anticipated below-normal rainfall could be the development of El Nino conditions, which are known to reduce monsoon rainfall in India, according to the IMD.

Currently, the neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are shifting towards El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific region.

The IMD predicts that El Nino conditions may be weak in June but could strengthen to moderate or strong levels by September.