Key Issues on the Agenda for Trump and Xi's Upcoming Summit

Overview of the Meeting

The upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 13 marks their seventh in-person encounter and is particularly significant as it follows Trump's last visit to Beijing in 2017. This summit is being scrutinized closely due to the current uncertainties in US-China relations and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly related to the conflict in Iran. Analysts are cautious about expecting substantial outcomes, as the focus is likely to be on stabilizing relations, resolving trade issues, and addressing disputes over Taiwan and rare earth minerals. Ahead of the summit, Trump humorously anticipated a "big, fat hug" from Xi, reminiscent of the cordial atmosphere during his initial state visit to China.

1. Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

The ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to be a major topic during the discussions. The US has urged China, the largest importer of Iranian oil, to leverage its influence to help stabilize the region. Trump has oscillated between criticizing China for its lack of action and acknowledging its role in facilitating ceasefire talks. However, the White House has tempered expectations for the meeting, with reports indicating that the US seeks China's support in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil and LNG shipments.

2. Trade Tensions and Tariffs

Trade disputes remain a significant hurdle in US-China relations. The last face-to-face meeting occurred in October during a regional summit in South Korea, where both leaders agreed to a temporary truce in their tariff war, which had seen duties soar above 100% on certain goods. Following Trump's 2024 campaign, there has been a push for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports, currently averaging around 60% for many sectors. The Busan agreement has temporarily halted further increases. For Xi, a primary objective of this summit will be to negotiate a rollback of these tariffs, as the high export costs are straining China's economy.

3. The Taiwan Issue

The Taiwan situation is anticipated to be a focal point of the meeting. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has not dismissed the possibility of using force for reunification. While the US does not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent nation, it opposes any military attempts to seize the island and continues to provide arms to Taipei. Chinese officials are reportedly urging the US to abandon its longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity" and to explicitly oppose Taiwanese independence. Any indications from Trump regarding future US military or political backing for Taiwan will be closely monitored.

4. Rare Earth Minerals and Technology

China dominates the global processing of rare earth minerals, crucial for electric vehicles, semiconductors, and advanced military technology. The US aims to lessen its reliance on Chinese supply chains, while Beijing has increasingly utilized export controls as leverage in strategic disputes. Competition in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and advanced chips, is expected to remain a significant source of tension. In January 2026, the US Department of Commerce revised its licensing policy for certain advanced chips exported to China, which could facilitate the export of high-performance chips like the NVIDIA H200, designed for commercial AI applications. China seeks broader access to US-made AI technology, while the US pressures China to ease restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, where it holds a substantial global market share.

5. Nuclear Policy and the South China Sea

Despite maintaining a "no first-use" nuclear policy, China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear capabilities. The US is advocating for improved communication to mitigate risks, but progress has been slow. Both nations recognize the necessity of open channels to prevent conflict, especially in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, yet deep-seated distrust complicates cooperation.

Trump's Objectives for the Meeting

From the Oval Office, Trump expressed that he anticipates discussions to touch on energy and the situation in Iran. He aims for China to commit to significant purchases to help reduce the US trade deficit. This summit is expected to yield commitments from China to buy US soybeans, aircraft, and other goods that were previously promised but not fully delivered under the "Phase One" trade agreement. Such agreements would benefit farmers and businesses affected by tariffs and help manage inventory levels. Trump is also focused on enhancing US capacity in rare earth minerals through increased domestic mining and partnerships with countries like Japan and Australia, making it crucial to observe how China might leverage its position in these discussions.

Xi's Goals for the Summit

Beijing will likely seek to ease restrictions on the sale of advanced AI chips and semiconductors as both nations compete for dominance in AI technology. Trump hinted at discussing Taiwan, noting that he expects Xi to raise the issue more than he will. China has long sought a more favorable US stance on Taiwan, with Xi previously urging President Biden to shift the official position from "does not support" to "oppose" Taiwanese independence. China will push Trump to adopt a similar stance, raising questions about the US's commitment to defending Taiwan, especially in light of the $11 billion arms package announced for the island last year.

A Historical Perspective on US-China Relations

Trump and Xi first met in April 2017 at Mar-a-Lago shortly after Trump took office. At that time, Trump had criticized China's trade practices and accused Beijing of harming American manufacturing. Relations were already tense following Trump's acceptance of a congratulatory call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, breaking with decades of diplomatic tradition. The two leaders met again later that year at the G20 summit in Hamburg, where discussions focused on North Korea's nuclear ambitions and trade relations. Shortly thereafter, the Trump administration initiated an investigation into alleged Chinese intellectual property theft, setting the stage for the trade war that would dominate their interactions. In June 2019, they met again in Osaka to de-escalate tensions, resulting in a "phase one" trade agreement where China committed to increasing purchases of American goods while the US eased some tariffs. After a six-year hiatus, their next summit occurred at the 2025 APEC gathering in Busan, amidst renewed tariff disputes that saw both nations impose high duties on each other's products. Following the talks, both governments announced a temporary halt to the escalating trade conflict, with the US reducing some tariffs and China easing certain restrictions on rare earth exports while resuming purchases of American agricultural products.