Kerala Welcomes Southwest Monsoon: What to Expect This Season?

The southwest monsoon has officially reached Kerala, marking the start of the rainy season. However, the India Meteorological Department has revised its rainfall predictions, indicating that this year's rainfall may be below normal levels. Factors such as the emergence of El Nino conditions could influence the monsoon's performance. The IMD expects rainfall to be around 90% of the long-period average, which raises concerns about potential deficiencies. As the season unfolds, the impact of these climatic conditions will be closely monitored.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jun 4, 2026, 13:36 IST

Monsoon Arrives in Kerala

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon has officially arrived in Kerala as of Thursday.

Typically, this seasonal weather pattern is expected to reach Kerala by June 1, marking the start of the monsoon period that lasts from June to September.

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon has progressed into various regions, including the remaining areas of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, parts of westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep islands, Kerala and Mahe, as well as sections of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and parts of the Comorin area, southeast Bay of Bengal, and additional regions of the Bay of Bengal as of June 4, 2026.

Initially, the weather agency had forecasted the monsoon's arrival for May 26, but it was delayed.

Recently, the IMD adjusted its seasonal rainfall predictions, suggesting that the rainfall this year would be below the normal levels.

The department anticipates that the rainfall across India will be approximately 90% of the long-period average (LPA) for this year.

The LPA is defined as the average rainfall recorded in a specific area over a long duration, typically spanning 30 to 50 years.

For the entire country, the LPA of seasonal rainfall, based on data from 1971 to 2020, stands at 87 cm. If the rainfall during the monsoon season falls below 90% of this average, it is categorized as 'deficient.'

One contributing factor to the expected below-normal rainfall could be the development of El Nino conditions, which are known to reduce monsoon rainfall in India.

Currently, the neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are shifting towards El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific region.

The IMD has indicated that El Nino conditions are expected to be weak in June but may become moderate to strong by September.