Is the TMC Facing a Parliamentary Rebellion? Inside the Political Turmoil in West Bengal

Political Turmoil in West Bengal

Kolkata: Just days after losing its grip on the legislative party in the West Bengal Assembly, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is now confronted with a potentially larger crisis—an uprising that could extend to its members in Parliament.

What started as a dissent movement led by Ritabrata Banerjee among MLAs has taken on a national significance, with increasing speculation that some party MPs in both Houses may be gearing up for a similar challenge against Mamata Banerjee and her nephew, Abhishek Banerjee, who leads the TMC in the Lok Sabha.

Veteran Rajya Sabha member Sukhendu Sekhar Roy has openly cautioned that the unprecedented dissent seen in the Assembly could resonate in Parliament.

"I have never witnessed around 60 MLAs depart in such a brief period. A comparable reaction is likely in the Lok Sabha as well," he remarked.

When questioned about the possibility of similar events occurring in the Rajya Sabha, Roy refrained from making a definitive statement but acknowledged that it couldn't be dismissed.

Senior TMC MP Sougata Roy rejected claims that the party was on the brink of collapse, accusing the BJP of attempting to replicate the Assembly's turmoil in Parliament.

"The BJP may attempt a maneuver within the TMC's Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha factions, similar to what transpired in the West Bengal Assembly. However, Mamata Banerjee has faced greater challenges and will recover," he asserted.

The Assembly rebellion marks a significant upheaval for a party that has been centered around loyalty to Mamata Banerjee for nearly thirty years.

For the first time since its inception in 1998, a notable faction of elected officials has openly defied the founder's authority, successfully taking control of the legislative party, leading to the Assembly Speaker recognizing Ritabrata Banerjee as the Leader of the Opposition.

The pressing question now circulating in Bengal's political circles is whether this Assembly coup is merely the beginning. Several indicators suggest that the unrest may not be limited to the state.

Barasat MP Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, once a close ally of Mamata Banerjee, has consistently expressed her discontent with the leadership since her removal as chief whip in the Lok Sabha.

Her public criticisms and growing estrangement from the party leadership have made her a key figure to watch in this evolving crisis.

Political discussions in both Kolkata and New Delhi indicate that if a parliamentary challenge arises, it could coalesce around a faction of MPs led by figures like Ghosh Dastidar, although none have publicly acknowledged such intentions.

According to senior TMC officials, Mamata Banerjee has been in contact with various legislators and MPs over the past two days, aiming to reopen dialogue with dissenters and explore reconciliation options before the rebellion gains further traction.

This outreach represents a significant shift for a leader who has typically enforced discipline rather than negotiated with dissenters.

Sources indicate that parallel damage-control efforts are underway in Parliament, with two trusted parliamentarians—one from the Lok Sabha and another from the Rajya Sabha—tasked with reaching out to colleagues amid fears that the Assembly dissent could spill over into the parliamentary faction.

The urgency reflects rising concerns among the remaining TMC leadership that if the revolt gains momentum in the national capital, the struggle for control of the party could escalate into a full-blown organizational challenge.

Currently, the TMC holds 28 MPs in the Lok Sabha and 13 in the Rajya Sabha. Under anti-defection laws, a group comprising two-thirds of a parliamentary party can potentially avoid disqualification if it breaks away under legally recognized circumstances.

This has led to two scenarios being discussed in political circles.

The first is what insiders refer to as the "Ritabrata model"—where MPs operate under a separate "new TMC" banner while challenging the existing leadership's authority and claiming to represent the majority within the parliamentary party.

The second is the "merger route," where a sufficiently large faction—more than two-thirds of MPs—could align with another political entity and seek protection from anti-defection laws.

Adding to the uncertainty are ongoing reports of outreach efforts by the BJP towards certain TMC MPs.

A senior TMC parliamentarian recently claimed that several MPs had been approached by individuals associated with the ruling party at the Centre, although the BJP has not commented on these allegations.

BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya, however, asserted that numerous TMC MPs and MLAs were attempting to connect with his party and were open to switching allegiances.

For the BJP, a weakening of the TMC in Parliament would have implications beyond Bengal politics. For Mamata Banerjee, however, the stakes are existential.

The Assembly setback has already diminished the aura of invincibility that surrounded her leadership for nearly three decades. A split in Parliament would intensify questions regarding authority, succession, and the future direction of a party that has never faced such internal challenges.

However, legislative strength alone does not determine ownership of a party's symbol, organization, or finances. Any faction seeking recognition as the "real" TMC would need to persuade the Election Commission that it commands majority support not only among MPs and MLAs but also within the party structure.