Is the Southwest Monsoon Arriving Early? IMD Predicts Changes Ahead!

The India Meteorological Department has indicated that the southwest monsoon may arrive earlier than expected, with favorable conditions developing over the Bay of Bengal. However, this year's rainfall is predicted to be below normal, potentially due to the influence of El Nino. As the monsoon typically reaches the Andaman Islands by May 20 and Kerala by June 1, the nation is bracing for changes in weather patterns. Stay tuned for updates on this year's monsoon season and its implications for rainfall across India.

By Narendra Chaudhary May 12, 2026, 22:50 IST

Monsoon Conditions Set to Emerge

New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Tuesday that conditions are becoming favorable for the southwest monsoon to begin over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by the end of this week.

As of 8:30 AM on May 12, 2026, a low-pressure system was located over the southwest Bay of Bengal, with a cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 kilometers above sea level. The IMD expects this system to strengthen in the next 48 hours.

Typically, the monsoon reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20, before moving westward towards the Indian mainland.

Kerala usually marks the official start of the monsoon season on June 1, which lasts from June to September.

Previously, the IMD had indicated that this year's monsoon might bring below-average rainfall.

The forecast suggests that India could receive around 80 cm of rain, compared to the long-term average of 87 cm from 1971 to 2020.

This reduction in rainfall may be linked to the development of El Nino conditions, which are known to decrease precipitation in the region.

In its May 1 monthly forecast, the IMD noted that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the equatorial Pacific were shifting towards El Nino.