Iran's Ongoing Missile Operations: A Strategic Response to US and Israel
Iran's 83rd Wave of Missile Operations
On March 27, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) declared the initiation of the 83rd phase of Operation True Promise 4. This operation specifically targets US military installations, including bases at Al-Dhafra and Al-Udeiri, maintenance facilities at Ali Al-Salem Air Base, fuel reserves for American fighter jets, and the Patriot missile system at Sheikh Isa Base. Concurrently, Iran's Consulate General in Mumbai shared a message of appreciation from the Aerospace Force directed towards the citizens of Spain, Pakistan, India, and Germany for their support during this missile response against the US and Israel. The systematic numbering of these operations is significant, as it reflects Iran's strategy in this ongoing conflict.
Understanding 'Operation True Promise 4'
The IRGC's designation of its counterattacks as Operation True Promise 4 is a strategic move in response to the US and Israel's Operation Fury, which commenced on February 28. This naming convention underscores Iran's historical context and operational continuity, even as it faces significant challenges. Reports from the Institute for the Study of War indicate that the US-Israel coalition has intensified its strikes against Iranian missile capabilities, leading to considerable damage to Iran's defense infrastructure. The IRGC's naval assets have been notably compromised, and its air defenses have been largely dismantled, with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the conflict marking a pivotal moment.
Despite these setbacks, Iran continues to launch its numbered waves of missile attacks. The Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies suggests that the purpose of these missile strikes is not solely to inflict physical damage but to send a message aimed at exhausting Israeli society and influencing global opinion, thereby pressuring the US to cease its military campaign. This fear-based strategy is a crucial element of Iran's communication approach. The latest wave, which acknowledges support from various nations, reinforces Iran's diplomatic ties and counters the narrative of isolation.
Strategic Long-Term Planning
The IRGC's initial statement at the war's onset set a clear agenda: "This operation will persist until the enemy is decisively defeated," designating all US assets in the region as legitimate targets. Although the frequency of strikes has diminished, analysts from the Critical Threats Project noted early on that the coalition was systematically targeting IRGC missile facilities to hinder Iran's capacity for large-scale attacks. By numbering each wave, even smaller ones, Iran can present its missile launches as organized and intentional rather than a sign of dwindling resources.
The INSS has observed that Iran is framing its military campaign as a "Ramadan war," integrating religious themes to resonate with Arab and Muslim audiences, thereby combining spiritual messaging with military deterrence. As the conflict reaches its 83rd wave, the situation has evolved into a grim tally: the US and Israel are counting destroyed assets, while Iran counts its responses and the nations that support it. Until both sides reassess the costs of this conflict, the waves of missile attacks will persist, each one numbered, named, and broadcast to a global audience that remains largely passive.