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Iran's Assembly of Experts to Select New Supreme Leader Amid Urgency

In the wake of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, Iran's Assembly of Experts is poised to meet urgently to select a new supreme leader. Mojtaba Khamenei, the late leader's son, is a prominent candidate, backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, his lack of clerical status and official government experience presents challenges. A recent intelligence report suggests that even a large-scale US attack would unlikely topple the Iranian regime, raising questions about the future of leadership in the country. Read on to learn more about the implications of this leadership transition.
 

Iran's Leadership Transition


According to a report from Iran's state-operated Fars News Agency, the Assembly of Experts, tasked with appointing the nation's supreme leader, is set to meet within the next day to elect a successor to Khamenei. The agency shared on X that an Assembly member confirmed, "The session to elect the leader will be held within the next 24 hours." This urgency is intentional, as Grand Ayatollah Nouri Hamedani has urged for a swift selection process, arguing that a prolonged succession could portray weakness at a time when Iran can least afford it. Ayatollah Mazafari also expressed that the Assembly has been "impatiently awaiting" this moment. He stated, "The representatives in the Assembly of Experts are eagerly anticipating the conditions for convening the session and the discussions to choose a new Leader and successor to the martyred Imam, to fulfill their historic and crucial mission."


Key Information


Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a US-Israeli operation last Saturday, Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old son of the late leader, has emerged as a prominent candidate for succession. While his ascent to this role is fraught with challenges, it remains a possibility. Mojtaba has strong connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which, as reported by Iran International, has been actively advocating for his selection by the Assembly of Experts. This military support is significant in a nation where the IRGC holds considerable power.


However, there are notable hurdles. Mojtaba is not a high-ranking cleric, which is a critical requirement in a system where religious authority is essential for political legitimacy. He has never occupied an official government role and has maintained a low public profile in Iran for many years. Nevertheless, he possesses his father's legacy, the backing of the IRGC, and the influence that these factors can wield within the Assembly.


In a related note, a classified report from the National Intelligence Council, which was confirmed by three sources to a major news outlet, indicated that even a significant US military strike on Iran would likely not dismantle the regime. The report assessed that the chances of Iran's opposition seizing control were deemed "unlikely."