India Anticipates Above-Normal Rainfall in Upcoming Monsoon Period

The India Meteorological Department forecasts above-normal rainfall for the latter half of the southwest monsoon season, particularly in August and September. With predictions indicating rainfall levels exceeding 106% of the long-term average, most regions are expected to experience normal precipitation. However, some areas, especially in the northeast, may see below-normal rainfall. The current neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation are likely to persist, supporting favorable monsoon activity. This follows a first half of the season marked by above-normal rainfall, which has led to flash floods in states like Himachal Pradesh. Read on for more details on the weather patterns and their implications.

By Narendra Chaudhary Aug 1, 2025, 11:06 IST

Forecast for the Monsoon Season

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the latter half of the southwest monsoon season, specifically August and September, is expected to bring above-normal rainfall across the country.

According to a recent press release, rainfall levels are projected to exceed 106% of the long-term average during this period.

The long-term average, which reflects the mean rainfall over the four-month monsoon season for the past 50 years, stands at 422.8 mm for August and September, based on data collected from 1971 to 2020.

For August, the IMD predicts that rainfall will likely fall within the normal range of 94% to 106% of this average.

Most regions in India are expected to experience normal rainfall in August, although the northeast and certain eastern areas may see below-normal precipitation.

Current neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific are anticipated to continue influencing the monsoon for the rest of the season, as indicated by the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System and other predictive models.

While the Indian Ocean Dipole is presently neutral, it is forecasted to shift to a weakly negative state by the season's end.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a recurring climate phenomenon that affects the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, significantly impacting India's monsoon patterns.

In contrast, the Indian Ocean Dipole refers to the temperature differences between the western Indian Ocean near Africa and the eastern Indian Ocean near Indonesia.

Currently prevailing neutral conditions are generally conducive to normal monsoon activity, allowing local weather systems to operate without significant interference from ocean temperature anomalies.

In the first half of the southwest monsoon season, India experienced above-normal rainfall, with several states, particularly Himachal Pradesh, facing flash floods.

From June 1 to July 31, the country recorded 474.3 mm of rainfall, which is 6% above the normal of 445.8 mm for that timeframe.

The favorable rainfall in July was attributed to beneficial Madden-Julian Oscillation conditions during the latter part of the month, along with the development of six low-pressure systems.

Four of these systems intensified into depressions, which significantly influenced rainfall patterns across northern and central India.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a large-scale tropical weather phenomenon characterized by an eastward-moving pulse of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure, typically occurring every 30 to 60 days and affecting global weather patterns. It plays a crucial role in short-term variations in monsoon rainfall.