IMD Predicts Below-Average Rainfall for August Amid Ongoing El Niño

The India Meteorological Department has announced a forecast for August 2026, predicting below-average rainfall across the country due to the ongoing El Niño phenomenon. Following a rebound in July rainfall, the IMD warns that the southwest monsoon may weaken. While most regions are expected to see less precipitation, some areas may experience normal or above-normal rainfall. The second half of the monsoon season is also projected to be below average. Stay informed about the latest weather updates and their implications for various regions in India.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jul 31, 2026, 19:10 IST

Forecast for August Rainfall

Following a significant rebound in rainfall during July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected below-average precipitation across the country for August. The department has issued a warning that the ongoing moderate El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean may weaken the southwest monsoon. In its latest monthly and seasonal forecast released on Friday, the IMD indicated that rainfall in India for August 2026 is expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). Based on weather data from 1971 to 2020, the normal rainfall for August is recorded at 254.9 mm.

Impact of July Rainfall

This forecast comes after nearly normal rainfall was observed in July, primarily due to several low-pressure systems and monsoon depressions that mitigated the effects of El Niño. According to the IMD, most regions in the country are likely to experience below-average rainfall in August, although some areas in northwest India, northeastern India, eastern-central India, and parts of the eastern peninsula may see normal or above-normal precipitation.

Monsoon Season Outlook

The weather department has also predicted that the second half of the monsoon season (August and September combined) is expected to be below average, with rainfall anticipated to be less than 94% of the LPA. The normal rainfall for this period is 422.8 mm. While conditions may not be ideal across the country, some regions are expected to fare better. The IMD noted that the remaining period of the season may bring normal or above-normal rainfall in peninsular India, northern parts of northwest India, and eastern and northeastern India.

El Niño's Influence

The rainfall forecast is closely linked to changing oceanic conditions. The IMD stated that the current El Niño is expected to remain at moderate intensity until August and may intensify further in September. Most global climate models suggest that this warm condition in the Pacific Ocean will persist until early 2027.

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