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Forecast Predicts Decline in Global Crude Oil Prices for 2025

According to a recent report by ICICI Bank, global crude oil prices are expected to trend lower in 2025, with forecasts suggesting a range of $60 to $70 per barrel. The bank has revised its earlier estimates due to anticipated supply surpluses and weak demand. Factors such as OPEC production levels, economic measures from China, and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are expected to influence these price movements. The report indicates that unless significant geopolitical events occur, crude oil prices will likely remain under pressure throughout the year. This analysis highlights the shifting dynamics in the oil market as it enters a new phase.
By Narendra Chaudhary May 23, 2025, 10:19 IST
Forecast Predicts Decline in Global Crude Oil Prices for 2025

Projected Trends in Crude Oil Prices

A recent analysis by ICICI Bank suggests that global crude oil prices are anticipated to exhibit a downward trend in 2025. The bank has adjusted its forecast for Brent Crude Oil, predicting that prices will likely fluctuate between $60 and $70 per barrel, with a possibility of dipping to $55 per barrel.

The report states, "Global crude oil prices are expected to maintain a downside bias... We have revised our Brent Crude Oil projections to a range of $60/bbl to $70/bbl for 2025." This marks a decrease from the previous estimate of $65 to $80 per barrel.

Consequently, ICICI Bank now estimates that the average crude oil price for 2025 will be around $65 per barrel, down from an earlier forecast of $72 per barrel. The report indicates that various global factors, such as OPEC's oil production, China's economic stimulus efforts, and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, could influence price fluctuations.

Despite these factors potentially affecting oil prices, ICICI Bank believes that the overall trend for 2025 will lean towards lower prices. A significant reason for this outlook is the anticipated surplus in oil supply, with the bank projecting a net supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) throughout the year.

Factors Influencing Oil Prices

This surplus is attributed to a mix of weak global demand and increased production from both OPEC and non-OPEC nations. Recent data from March and April 2025 indicates a rise in supply levels compared to the same months in 2024, when the market experienced a deficit. The expected shift to surplus in 2025 is likely to further depress prices.

The report also notes that historically, a net supply surplus tends to negatively affect oil prices. Therefore, crude oil is projected to remain under pressure for the remainder of the year unless a significant geopolitical event triggers a sudden price increase.


In summary, as oil supply continues to rise while demand remains subdued, the crude oil market is transitioning, and prices are expected to remain low throughout 2025.