Experts Question Assam Government's Flood Rainfall Claims

The recent floods in Assam have prompted the government to attribute the disaster to heavy rainfall, claiming excess precipitation of 300-400%. However, meteorologists are questioning this narrative, arguing that focusing solely on percentage increases can be misleading. They emphasize the importance of considering actual rainfall amounts and other contributing factors such as terrain and human-induced changes. This article delves into the complexities behind the flooding, highlighting expert opinions and data that challenge the government's assertions. Discover the multifaceted reasons behind the devastation and the implications for future disaster management.

By Narendra Chaudhary Aug 5, 2026, 10:14 IST

Sivasagar District Faces Severe Flooding

Sivasagar has come out to be the worst affected district in the recent Upper Assam floods (Photo: AT)

Sivasagar, Aug 5: The recent floods in upper Assam, which have devastated the region, have led to the Assam government's claim that the extreme weather was primarily due to heavy rainfall. However, this assertion is facing skepticism from meteorological experts who argue that presenting rainfall data solely as percentages can be misleading.

The government reported that various areas experienced rainfall exceeding normal levels by 300-400 percent during the flooding, implying that this unusual precipitation was the main factor behind the extensive flooding. Meteorologists emphasize that understanding rainfall anomalies requires looking at both the percentage deviations and the actual amounts of rainfall recorded over specific periods.

“The emphasis on percentage figures led many to believe that the floods were solely caused by rain,” noted a weather analyst. “For brief weather events, percentage excess alone does not accurately depict the situation. The total rainfall is equally significant,” he elaborated.

For instance, Mokokchung recorded a staggering 493 percent above-normal rainfall from July 18 to 20, totaling 238.9 mm compared to the usual 40.3 mm, averaging less than 80 mm daily. Similarly, Zunheboto saw a 419 percent increase in rainfall during the same timeframe, with an average of around 60 mm daily, which is not unusual for the area.

On July 29, similar trends were noted. Hojai reported 520 percent excess rainfall (27.3 mm against a normal of 4.4 mm), Tamulpur had 528 percent excess (60.3 mm versus 9.6 mm), and West Karbi Anglong recorded 562 percent excess (40.4 mm against 6.1 mm).

“If flood severity was solely determined by percentage excess, these areas would have been inundated,” remarked a meteorologist, highlighting that some regions in Odisha experienced 1,000-1,500 percent excess rainfall on the same day without facing significant flooding.

Rainfall intensity also presents a different narrative. On July 19, the Aboi weather station in Nagaland recorded approximately 137 mm of rain in 24 hours, while Sonari in Assam saw nearly 190 mm. Experts pointed out that neither instance constituted a cloudburst.

According to meteorologists, rainfall alone seldom leads to such extensive destruction unless it reaches cloudburst levels (100 mm in an hour). They argue that floods and landslides usually result from a combination of factors, including terrain, drainage conditions, river dynamics, and land-use changes.

These insights align with a report from the North Eastern Regional Disaster Management and Research Centre (NERDDR) following recent landslides in Nagaland's Mon district. The report indicates that while heavy rainfall was a triggering factor, existing slope instability and gradual ground movement in the tectonically active Naga Schuppen Belt were likely significant contributors.

The study also highlights human-induced alterations to the landscape, such as vegetation loss, modified surface drainage, and changes to hill slopes, which may have considerably weakened slope stability and intensified the effects of heavy rainfall.