European Elections: A Mixed Bag for Centrists Amidst Rising Far-Right Influence
Super Sunday: A Turning Point in European Politics
On May 18, millions of voters in Romania, Poland, and Portugal participated in what was termed an electoral 'Super Sunday.' This event saw candidates from liberal, pro-European Union factions competing against far-right parties aligned with Donald Trump. Concerns were prevalent regarding a potential rise of far-right influence, especially in Romania and Poland. However, the results indicated that centrist parties managed to maintain their positions in these EU and NATO member states, providing a sigh of relief for the West and the EU, as eurosceptic parties were kept at bay for the time being. In Portugal, the ruling Centre-Right party achieved a parliamentary victory but had to acknowledge significant gains made by far-right factions.
Despite the centrist victories, the growth of far-right populism remains a troubling trend across all three nations. This election marks the latest in a series of far-right advances in Europe, following a noticeable shift to the right in the European Parliament during last summer's elections. Romania's presidential election concluded with a decisive win for centrist candidate Nicusor Dan, who garnered 54% of the votes against nationalist contender George Simion, who received 46%. This election saw the highest voter turnout in 25 years, reflecting its significant geopolitical implications for the EU.
Dan, the 55-year-old mayor of Bucharest, who initially lagged in the polls, made a remarkable comeback in the final days of voting. He campaigned on a platform of anti-corruption and support for the EU and NATO. In contrast, Simion, who admires Trump, focused his campaign on euroscepticism and nationalist themes, promising to halt military assistance to Ukraine and challenge the existing political order. Early leads for Simion raised alarms among liberal voters, but as the results unfolded, it became evident that the electorate favored Dan's centrist vision for Romania. The elections followed a previous vote in December that was annulled due to alleged Russian interference, with many Romanians fearing that a Simion victory would lead to increased Russian influence in their country.
In Poland, Rafal Trzaskowski, a deputy leader of Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist Civic Platform party, secured 31.1% of the vote, narrowly defeating Karol Nawrocki of the conservative Law and Justice party, who received 29.1%. This election serves as a referendum on Tusk's government, with a second round of voting anticipated. Social issues played a significant role in the campaign, with Nawrocki positioning himself as a defender of conservative values, while Trzaskowski attracted support for his commitments to abortion and LGBTQ rights. A victory for Trzaskowski in the upcoming round could enable Tusk's administration to reverse judicial reforms implemented by PiS, which critics argue have compromised judicial independence.
In Portugal, the parliamentary elections resulted in the ruling Centre-Right Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Luis Montenegro, winning 89 seats in the 230-seat parliament, falling short of the 116 needed for a majority. The party received 32.7% of the vote. The Socialist Party and the far-right Chega party finished in second place, each securing 58 seats. The Socialists faced significant losses compared to previous elections. With several seats still undecided, Chega could potentially emerge as the main opposition party, having won a record 22.6% of the vote, a substantial increase from the 1.3% it achieved in its first election in 2019. Although far-right parties did not significantly undermine mainstream parties in these elections, the latter must act swiftly to demonstrate their ability to address pressing issues like the cost of living crisis and immigration. Otherwise, the far-right may soon dominate European politics.