Delayed Monsoon Arrival Expected in Southern India

The India Meteorological Department's latest forecasts indicate a delayed onset of the southwest monsoon in Southern India, particularly in Kerala. Expected to begin after June 5-6, the monsoon may not be as vigorous as previously thought. This year's unpredictable weather has led to several adjustments in forecasts, with the official arrival now anticipated between June 2-4. Key conditions for declaring the monsoon's arrival are still developing, including consistent rainfall and adequate westerly winds. Read on to learn more about the implications of this delay and the factors influencing the monsoon's behavior.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jun 2, 2026, 14:25 IST

Monsoon Forecast for Southern India

Recent weather models from the India Meteorological Department suggest that the strong upper-level winds necessary for a robust monsoon in southern India are likely to develop only after June 5-6. This indicates that the onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala may be less vigorous than anticipated, with its full seasonal impact unfolding gradually.

The southwest monsoon is crucial for India, serving as the annual lifeline. This weather system brings warm, moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean, contributing to most of the country's rainfall between June and September. It supports agriculture, replenishes reservoirs, and provides relief from the heat for millions.

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The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a powerful computer model utilized by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for weather predictions. This model analyzes vast amounts of atmospheric data to forecast weather patterns days in advance. According to its latest predictions, the western disturbance system bringing moist winds from the west must advance before the dominant eastern winds strengthen in southern India. Until then, the initial flow of the monsoon in Kerala is expected to remain weak.

This year's monsoon has been unpredictable, leading to several inaccuracies in the IMD's forecasts. Initially, the IMD projected the monsoon's arrival in Kerala around May 26. However, the timeline has shifted, and current estimates suggest the official onset will occur between June 2-4. Some regions in Kerala have already experienced pre-monsoon rainfall, but all necessary conditions for declaring the monsoon's arrival are still being established.

The IMD requires three criteria to be met simultaneously for announcing the monsoon's arrival. These include consistent rainfall at a minimum of 60% of designated weather stations in Kerala, a specific speed of westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, and sufficient cloud cover. Currently, while rainfall and cloud coverage are adequate, the westerly winds in Kerala are weakening. This weakening is attributed to cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which has diminished the flow of monsoon winds.