Delayed Arrival of Southwest Monsoon in Kerala: IMD Updates

The Indian Meteorological Department has announced a delay in the arrival of the Southwest Monsoon in Kerala, now expected between June 2 and June 4. This year's monsoon is predicted to be weaker than usual due to developing El Niño conditions. Farmers are concerned about timely rainfall as they prepare for the sowing season amidst ongoing heat waves. The IMD's forecasts indicate a gradual strengthening of the monsoon after its initial weak onset. Read on for detailed insights into the monsoon's impact on agriculture and weather patterns.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jun 2, 2026, 12:44 IST

Anticipation Grows for the Southwest Monsoon

For the citizens and farmers eagerly awaiting the annual lifeline of India, the Southwest Monsoon, there is significant news. According to the latest weather models from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the onset date of the monsoon in Kerala has been postponed once again. Recent results from the IMD's Global Forecast System (GFS) indicate that the strong upper-level winds responsible for a robust monsoon will only become active in South India after June 5. This suggests that the monsoon's arrival in Kerala may be less vigorous than expected, gradually picking up pace instead.

The Importance of the Southwest Monsoon

The Southwest Monsoon is crucial for India, bringing warm, moisture-laden winds from the Indian Ocean, resulting in most of the country's rainfall between June and September. This seasonal phenomenon supports agriculture, replenishes reservoirs, and provides relief from the summer heat for millions.

Latest Monsoon Forecast from IMD

The GFS is a powerful computer model utilized by the IMD to predict weather patterns days in advance by processing vast amounts of atmospheric data. According to its recent findings, an incoming western disturbance—a weather system bringing moisture-laden winds from the west—must first dissipate for the primary easterly winds over South India to strengthen adequately. Until then, the initial flow of the monsoon in Kerala is expected to remain weak.

Changing Predictions

The IMD's predictions regarding the monsoon have often been inaccurate. Initially, it was forecasted that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala around May 26. This timeline has since shifted, and the official start is now anticipated between June 2 and June 4.

Conditions for Monsoon Declaration

Pre-monsoon rains have already brought some precipitation to parts of Kerala, but not all conditions necessary for the official declaration of the monsoon have been met. The IMD requires three criteria to be fulfilled for this announcement: consistent rainfall at 60% of designated weather stations in Kerala, a specific speed of westerly winds over the Arabian Sea, and sufficient cloud cover in the sky.

Current Weather Conditions

While rainfall and cloud cover are adequate, the westerly winds over Kerala are weakening. This reduction is attributed to cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal, which has slowed the flow of monsoon winds. However, experts predict that winds will begin to strengthen starting Monday, June 1.

Outlook for the Monsoon

The monsoon is indeed on the horizon and could arrive in just a few days. However, the quality of this season's rainfall remains uncertain. The IMD has forecasted below-normal rainfall across the country this year, primarily due to developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. Initially, the IMD estimated that monsoon rainfall would be around 92% of the long-period average (LPA), but this has been revised down to 90%, raising concerns about the potential adverse effects of the emerging El Niño on this critical season.

Impact on Agriculture

With severe heat waves persisting in northern and central India, timely rainfall is crucial for farmers preparing for the sowing season. While models may change with new data, the current situation indicates a slow start to the monsoon, which will gradually intensify.