Climate Change Threatens Water Availability in Meghalaya's Wettest Regions

A recent study highlights the paradox of increasing rainfall intensity in Meghalaya's Mawsynram and Cherrapunji, which are now facing heightened drought risks. Researchers found that while heavy rains are becoming more concentrated, the number of rainy days is decreasing, leading to water scarcity. Local residents report drying waterfalls and water bodies, raising concerns about future water availability. The study emphasizes the impact of rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns on groundwater recharge, suggesting that even significant monsoon rains may not suffice during dry periods. This research underscores the urgent need to address climate change's effects on water resources in this region.

By Narendra Chaudhary Sep 21, 2026, 15:31 IST

Drought Risk in Meghalaya's Rainy Regions

Sohra in Meghalaya is considered to be the wettest place in the world (AT Photo)

Shillong, Sep 21: Recent research indicates that Mawsynram and Cherrapunji, known for their heavy rainfall, are increasingly at risk of drought due to climate change. This phenomenon is characterized by more intense rainfall events, fewer rainy days, and rising temperatures.

The study, published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, analyzed climate and hydrological data from 1981 to 2100 to explore the contradiction of increased rainfall intensity alongside heightened drought risk.

Researchers Ashesh Rudra Paul and Pankaj Kumar Roy discovered that rainfall is becoming more concentrated in short bursts, while lighter rain and the frequency of rainy days are on the decline.

They noted a rise in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with a maximum increase of 0.08 mm per day per year, while the average number of rainy days decreased by 0.40 days annually.

SDII serves as a climate index that quantifies the average rainfall on a 'wet day' over a specified timeframe, typically measured in millimeters per day (mm/day).

Despite the expectation that increased rainfall would mitigate drought, the researchers found a distinct trend towards heightened drought risk in Meghalaya.

Local residents have reported increasing water scarcity, with many water bodies and waterfalls drying up more quickly this year, a trend that has been noticeable since mid-September.

P Hujon, a guest house owner in Mawkisyiem, remarked, "Many waterfalls in the Sohra area are drying up, and I have observed this as early as mid-September."

The implications of changing rainfall patterns are particularly critical for Meghalaya, given its steep landscapes and shallow soils.

Intense rainfall leads to rapid surface runoff rather than being absorbed into the ground, which diminishes groundwater replenishment.

This means that even substantial monsoon rains may not provide sufficient water during the dry season.

"The concentration of rainfall increases surface runoff and decreases soil infiltration," the study noted.

Additionally, rising temperatures exacerbate the situation by increasing evapotranspiration, which is the loss of water from soil, vegetation, and other surfaces.

Minimum temperatures have been rising by approximately 0.08 degrees Celsius annually.

The researchers indicated that higher temperatures elevate atmospheric water demand and accelerate soil moisture depletion during dry spells.

To evaluate drought conditions, the researchers utilized the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a three-month period.

The analysis revealed a growing frequency and severity of moderate to extreme drought events, particularly under the high-emission SSP585 scenario.

SSP585 represents a high-emission climate change scenario that models a future characterized by rapid economic growth heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

These findings were also reflected in projections regarding river flows.

Through hydrological modeling, the researchers assessed the Sari-Gowain and Surma-Meghna river basins, both of which originate in or receive significant water from Meghalaya.

The model forecasts a potential decline of up to 9.8% in mean annual streamflow in the Sari-Gowain basin in the distant future under the SSP585 scenario, while the Surma-Meghna basin could see a maximum decline of 11.6% under the same conditions.

It is important to note that the study did not consider human-induced factors such as deforestation, urbanization, land-use changes, and groundwater extraction, which can also impact water availability.