Assam and Meghalaya Face Sixth Consecutive Year of Below-Normal Monsoon Rainfall

Monsoon Deficit in Assam and Meghalaya

Guwahati, Oct 1: Once again, the monsoon season has not met expectations in Assam and Meghalaya, marking the sixth year in a row of insufficient rainfall. This ongoing trend raises alarms about the shifting rainfall patterns in a region heavily reliant on monsoon precipitation.

The four-month southwest monsoon period concluded with the Assam-Meghalaya meteorological sub-division experiencing a 31% deficit, receiving only 1,204.6 mm of rain compared to the normal 1,784 mm, as reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Meghalaya, known for its heavy rainfall, faced an even steeper 39% shortfall, while Assam recorded a 26% decrease.

The broader Northeast region also saw a lack of rain, with all states except Nagaland reporting below-normal levels. Arunachal Pradesh experienced the highest deficit in the region at 45%.

Throughout the monsoon season, cumulative rainfall in the IMD’s East and Northeast India homogeneous region remained below average.

This latest deficit continues a concerning trend of inadequate monsoons in Assam and Meghalaya. After a 29% excess in 2020, the area has since recorded deficits of 18%, 9%, 17%, 15%, and 36% in the following five years.

The situation was particularly alarming in 2025, when Assam and Meghalaya received only 1,123.4 mm of rainfall, the lowest since records began in 1901.

Historically, the region has struggled to achieve normal or surplus monsoon levels. Prior to 2020, above-normal rainfall was recorded only once in 2012, indicating that the monsoon has fallen short in 13 of the last 15 years.

Renowned meteorologist Professor Bhupendra Nath Goswami, a former Director at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, linked the contrasting rainfall patterns between India and the Northeast to climate change.

“While the average rainfall across India, especially in some western states, is on the rise, Northeast India is experiencing a decline due to climate change,” Goswami explained.

He noted that increased atmospheric moisture from climate change is leading to more frequent and intense rainfall extremes, characterized by short bursts of heavy rain followed by dry spells.

“This trend is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future,” he added.

Rainfall Variability in Assam

Within Assam, rainfall distribution was inconsistent. Two districts, Nalbari (down 61%) and Udalguri (down 60%), were classified as ‘largely deficient,’ while ten districts received ‘normal’ rainfall, and the rest were deemed ‘deficient.’ The shortfall was particularly evident in traditionally wet areas.

Sohra: A Legacy of Rainfall Under Threat

In Sohra, formerly known as Cherrapunji, the seasonal deficit reached 35%, highlighting the changing rainfall dynamics even in a location famed for its heavy monsoon rains. The East Khasi Hills town recorded a 40% deficit in June, followed by 15% in July, 30% in August, and a staggering 70% in September. These figures are striking for a region historically associated with some of the highest rainfall totals globally.

Guwahati: A Mixed Monsoon Experience

Guwahati's monsoon experience was notably uneven. The city saw a 70% excess in rainfall during July, but other months fell significantly short. June had deficits of around 60%, and both August and September also ended below normal. Overall, Guwahati recorded about 7% less rainfall than average for the season, with much of the deficit offset by the unusually wet July.

However, rainfall in the city was concentrated in a few heavy events. Aside from two days of intense rain in July, only once did rainfall exceed 50 mm during the entire season, occurring in August. Additionally, Guwahati's average maximum temperature remained approximately 1 degree Celsius above normal throughout the monsoon, further illustrating the region's shifting weather patterns.