What Lies Ahead for Israel? Netanyahu's Coalition Struggles Amid Election Uncertainty

Election Results Leave Netanyahu's Future in Question

In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition has fallen short of securing a parliamentary majority, currently holding 53 seats compared to 48 for the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Arab parties are projected to gain 19 seats, complicating the formation of the next government.

As per reports from local media referencing the Central Elections Committee (CEC), 93% of the regular ballots have been counted, representing 85.6% of the total votes.

To achieve a majority in the 120-member Knesset, at least 61 seats are necessary.

Eisenkot's coalition, along with the Arab parties, totals 67 seats, which could provide sufficient support to establish a government if they can navigate their political differences.

However, the likelihood of such a coalition remains unclear. Netanyahu has expressed reluctance to depend on Arab parties, while opposition leaders are divided on whether to include them in a coalition or rely on their external support.

The CEC indicated that the remaining 7% of ballots require further scrutiny.

Additionally, around 600,000 double-envelope ballots are yet to be counted, which include votes from soldiers and other eligible voters away from their registered polling places. These are expected to be added to the final tally in the coming days after verification to prevent duplicate voting.

Three parties are currently below the electoral threshold of 3.25%: Reservists at 2.6%, People of Israel at 1.6%, and Charedi Public at 0.2%. Their final vote percentages may change as counting progresses.

Exit polls from major broadcasters had estimated Netanyahu's bloc at 50-52 seats and the opposition at 51-53, with Arab parties projected to secure around 17-18 seats. An i24NEWS exit poll suggested Netanyahu's bloc might achieve 55 seats against 49 for Eisenkot's coalition.

Netanyahu's Likud party is on track to be the largest individual party, yet the broader coalition backing him still lacks a majority.

President Isaac Herzog has called on political factions to strive to avoid another election, emphasizing the need for an open-minded approach in the government formation process.

Herzog stated, "We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections. So I expect everyone who comes here to come with an open mind," during his remarks in Jerusalem.

He anticipates receiving the official election results next week from Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, after which he will consult with each Knesset faction regarding the formation of a new government.

The president commended the high voter turnout, labeling it a "badge of honour for Israeli society" and reflecting the populace's commitment to democracy.

With a turnout of 77.7%, this marks the highest participation rate since 1999.

Netanyahu's immediate task is to forge a coalition that can secure the backing of at least 61 lawmakers.

The opposition bloc also does not meet this threshold independently, placing the Arab parties in a potentially pivotal role.

Netanyahu has cautioned against what he terms a "dangerous government" that could involve Arab parties.

Yair Golan, leader of the Democrats party, has urged Eisenkot's coalition to collaborate with Arab parties, asserting that their voters deserve equal political representation as Jewish citizens.

Golan has called for an end to perceived racism and apprehension regarding political alliances with Arab citizens, advocating for a government of change that includes them.

The contention over cooperation with Arab parties remains a significant barrier to government formation, even if the current seat distribution remains unchanged.

Historically, Arab parties have played a role in government formation. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, was part of the coalition established in 2021 under then-prime minister Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, which ultimately collapsed in 2022, leading to another election.

Eisenkot, 66, heads the Yashar party and has become a key figure in the movement to unseat Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister. After a lengthy military career, he aims to leverage his military experience into political influence.

His political visibility increased following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, which resulted in approximately 1,200 fatalities and hostages taken into Gaza.

Eisenkot participated in the emergency war cabinet formed by Netanyahu as an observer but departed in June 2024, criticizing the lack of a clear war strategy and accusing Netanyahu of prioritizing political interests over security and hostage recovery.

The conflict has also had personal repercussions for Eisenkot, as his son and two nephews were killed while serving in the military during the war. He has vowed to establish a state commission of inquiry into the security lapses surrounding the October 7 attack, while Netanyahu has resisted such calls during the ongoing conflict.

Eisenkot's campaign focuses on security, governance, and a more structured approach to military decision-making.

This election has rekindled discussions about a potential national unity government involving both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, although this concept faces opposition from various parties.

Israel has faced repeated electoral stalemates over the last decade, conducting five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 due to ongoing disputes regarding Netanyahu's leadership and coalition composition.

In the 2022 election, the pro-Netanyahu bloc secured 64 seats, aided by the failure of Meretz and Balad to meet the electoral threshold.

Under Israel's proportional representation system, voters select closed party lists, treating the entire country as a single constituency. Parties must achieve at least 3.25% of valid votes to gain seats in the Knesset, with votes for parties that do not meet this threshold not translating into seats.

The current impasse also recalls the power-sharing agreement established in 2020 between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, a former defense minister and military chief who served as IDF chief of staff from 2011 to 2015.

According to this agreement, Gantz was set to succeed Netanyahu as prime minister under a rotation plan. However, the government collapsed before the planned power transfer due to the failure to pass a state budget on time, leading to early elections.

The Central Elections Committee is expected to release the final election results by November 4, following its official schedule.

Herzog will engage with representatives of the elected parties before designating a lawmaker to attempt to form a government. The president typically selects the candidate deemed most likely to secure parliamentary backing, rather than being obligated to choose the leader of the largest party.

The first nominee has 28 days to establish a government, with the president having the authority to grant an extension of up to 14 days.

If this attempt fails, another lawmaker may be given the chance to try under the established process. A failure to form a government could ultimately lead to another election, with Netanyahu remaining in a caretaker role in the meantime.