Public Skepticism Grows Over Trump's Nuclear Deal with Iran

A recent survey indicates that a majority of Americans are skeptical about President Trump's ability to negotiate a better nuclear deal with Iran than the one established by Barack Obama in 2015. The poll reveals that only 23% believe Trump will succeed, while 37% think his efforts will yield a worse agreement. Even within his party, support is shaky, with only 54% of Republicans expressing confidence. The original deal, which faced significant disapproval, has left many questioning Trump's military approach and its effectiveness. As public trust wanes, the political implications for Trump grow more severe, especially with midterm elections on the horizon.

By Narendra Chaudhary Jul 18, 2026, 06:52 IST

Majority Doubt Trump's Nuclear Negotiation Skills

Recent survey findings indicate that a significant portion of the American populace is skeptical about President Donald Trump's ability to secure a more favorable nuclear agreement with Iran compared to the one negotiated by Barack Obama in 2015. Since the onset of the Iran conflict, Trump has consistently emphasized that Obama's nuclear deal was ineffective, asserting that his strategy would yield a much stronger agreement. A report from a major news outlet reveals that Trump has referenced Obama's deal over thirty times since the conflict began. However, a new poll from Washington Post-Ipsos indicates that this narrative is not resonating well with the public.

Poll Results Highlight Public Sentiment

The poll reveals that only 23% of Americans believe Trump will achieve a better deal than Obama did in 2015. In contrast, 37% anticipate that Trump's efforts will result in a less favorable agreement. Approximately 12% think the two deals will be comparable, while the remaining respondents expressed no opinion. Even among Republicans, support for Trump's potential success is tenuous, with only 54% expressing confidence. This assurance is primarily found among his staunchest supporters, as 70% of MAGA Republicans expect a better outcome. Conversely, Republicans outside this group are nearly evenly divided, with 27% backing Trump and 23% favoring Obama's original agreement. Independents show the least faith, with only 13% believing Trump will surpass Obama.

Background on the Original Agreement

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the agreement established during Obama's presidency, faced significant disapproval at the time of its signing nine years ago. A Pew Research Center survey from September 2015 indicated that 49% of Americans opposed the deal, a sentiment that intensified by early 2016, when Gallup reported a 57% to 30% disapproval rate. The current lack of confidence in Trump's proposed deal is noteworthy, especially considering the original agreement's unpopularity.

Trump's Criticism of the 2015 Agreement

Over the past several months, Trump has relentlessly criticized the Obama-era agreement, portraying it as a concession to Iran that brought the nation closer to developing nuclear weapons. During a recent discussion with Egypt's president, Trump claimed that Iranian officials openly mocked Obama, referring to him derogatorily. In a Fox News interview, he labeled the 2015 deal as "the worst agreement that has been signed by this country."

A Costly Approach with Diminished Public Trust

What stands out is that Trump has committed significantly more resources to this conflict than Obama did, yet public confidence has not increased. Obama achieved his agreement through diplomatic means, while Trump's strategy has involved military action, resulting in the loss of American lives and substantial financial costs, disrupting the global economy. The conflict lacks a clear resolution, and Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz have introduced new complications.

Wider Concerns Regarding the War

This skepticism is not an isolated finding. A CBS News-YouGov poll indicates that about two-thirds of Americans doubt that the war will effectively prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, despite this being a stated goal of Trump's administration. The latest survey also highlights increasing political repercussions for Trump, with 68% of Americans now believing the Iran war was not worth engaging in, a higher opposition rate than recorded for the Iraq or Afghanistan wars. Trump's disapproval rating regarding his handling of Iran has surged to 69%, a figure that continues to rise as midterm elections approach.