Is the Strait of Hormuz Truly Open? Iran's Claims Amid Ongoing Tensions
Iran's Announcement on the Strait of Hormuz
Beirut: Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz is fully accessible to commercial shipping. However, uncertainties remain regarding the actual freedom of navigation, as Tehran continues to exert control over maritime traffic and has threatened to close the strait again if the US maintains its blockade on Iranian vessels and ports.
The announcement made by Iran on Friday regarding the reopening of this vital waterway, which facilitates the passage of 20% of the world's oil, coincided with a fragile 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported militant group in Lebanon.
In response, US President Donald Trump affirmed that the American blockade would remain intact until a comprehensive agreement is reached with Iran, particularly concerning its nuclear ambitions.
When questioned about potential actions if no agreement is reached by the end of the ceasefire next week, Trump expressed uncertainty but hinted at the possibility of not extending the ceasefire, which could lead to renewed military actions.
Earlier, Trump had celebrated Iran's announcement on social media, stating that the strait was 'fully open for passage.' However, he later clarified that the US Navy's blockade would persist until a complete agreement with Iran is finalized.
Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, indicated that vessels would navigate routes approved by Iranian authorities, implying that Iran intends to maintain some level of oversight over the strait. It remains unclear whether ships will be required to pay tolls.
Iranian officials have claimed that the blockade violates the recent ceasefire agreement with the US, warning that the strait 'will not remain open' if the blockade continues, as stated by Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the parliamentary speaker.
According to data from Kpler, maritime movement through the strait is still restricted to corridors that require Iranian approval.
Since the blockade was initiated on Monday, US forces have reportedly returned 21 ships to Iran, as confirmed by US Central Command.
Prospects for New Talks
Trump's blockade is part of a broader strategy to compel Iran to reopen the strait and accept a ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, aimed at ending nearly seven weeks of conflict involving Israel, the US, and Iran.
The decision to maintain the blockade, despite Iran's announcement, appears to be a tactic to keep pressure on Tehran as the future of the ceasefire remains uncertain.
Recent direct discussions between the US and Iran yielded no agreement, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program and other contentious issues.
Trump hinted at the possibility of a second round of negotiations occurring over the weekend, stating, 'The Iranians want to meet. They want to make a deal. I think a meeting will probably take place over the weekend.'
Oil prices experienced a decline on Friday, fueled by optimism that the US and Iran might be nearing an agreement. The head of the International Energy Agency had previously warned that the energy crisis could worsen if the strait remained closed.
Two Iranian semi-official news outlets seemed to question Araghchi's announcement about the strait's reopening, with the Fars news agency criticizing the lack of clarity surrounding the decision and the silence from the Supreme National Security Council and the negotiating team.
The Supreme National Security Council has recently taken on a significant decision-making role in Iran, amid uncertainties regarding the status of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was reportedly injured early in the conflict.
The Mehr news agency also indicated that the decision to reopen the strait required further clarification and the supreme leader's endorsement.
Impact of the Lebanon Ceasefire
Truce in Lebanon Could Facilitate US-Iran Negotiations
The ceasefire in Lebanon may eliminate a significant barrier to reaching an agreement between Iran, the US, and Israel to conclude the ongoing conflict. However, it remains uncertain how committed Hezbollah will be to a deal it did not negotiate, especially with Israeli forces still occupying parts of southern Lebanon.
Trump stated that Israel is 'prohibited' from conducting further strikes on Lebanon, asserting that 'enough is enough' regarding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
The State Department clarified that this prohibition only applies to offensive operations, not actions taken in self-defense.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that Israel agreed to the ceasefire at Trump's request but emphasized that the campaign against Hezbollah is not yet finished.
He claimed that Israel has successfully destroyed approximately 90% of Hezbollah's missile and rocket stockpiles, asserting that Israeli forces still have work to do in dismantling the group.
Celebrations and Tensions in Beirut
Celebrations Erupt in Beirut
In Beirut, celebratory gunfire erupted as the ceasefire commenced. Displaced families began returning to southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut, despite official warnings to wait until the ceasefire's stability was confirmed.
Reports from the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers indicated sporadic artillery shelling in some areas of southern Lebanon shortly after the ceasefire took effect.
An Israeli airstrike in Kounine targeted a vehicle and a motorcycle, resulting in one fatality and three injuries, including a Syrian national, marking the first reported airstrike and casualty since the ceasefire began.
There was no immediate comment from either the Israeli military or Hezbollah regarding the incident.
Ending Israel's conflict with Hezbollah was a key demand from Iranian negotiators, who previously accused Israel of violating last week's ceasefire with strikes on Lebanon. Israel contended that the ceasefire agreement did not extend to Lebanon.
The ongoing fighting has resulted in significant casualties, with at least 3,000 deaths in Iran, over 2,290 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and more than a dozen in Gulf Arab states. Additionally, 13 US service members have lost their lives.
Israel's Stance on Troops in Lebanon
Israel's Defence Minister Affirms Military Presence
Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, stated that Israeli forces would maintain their positions in all areas currently occupied, including a buffer zone extending 10 kilometers into southern Lebanon. He warned that many homes in the region would be destroyed, preventing Lebanese residents from returning.
Hezbollah has asserted that the Lebanese people possess 'the right to resist' Israeli occupation, indicating that their actions will depend on how the situation evolves.
Israel and Hezbollah have a long history of conflict, with intermittent fighting resuming immediately after the onset of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. A ceasefire agreement was reached in November 2024, but Israel has continued its near-daily strikes, claiming it is necessary to prevent Hezbollah from regrouping. This escalated into another invasion after Hezbollah resumed missile attacks in response to Israel's actions against Iran.
Mediation Efforts and Future Talks
Mediators Seek Compromise on Key Issues
In the ongoing conflict, mediators are striving for a compromise on three primary issues: Iran's nuclear program, the Strait of Hormuz, and compensation for wartime damages, according to a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.
Trump suggested on Friday that Iran has agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, stating, 'The USA will get all the nuclear dust.' He elaborated that the US would retrieve it using excavators in Iran.
The term 'nuclear dust' is commonly used by Trump to refer to the highly enriched uranium believed to be buried at nuclear sites bombed by the US during last year's 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran.
If this claim is accurate, it would represent a significant concession from Iran and fulfill a crucial demand from the US to resolve the conflict. However, neither Iran nor the countries acting as intermediaries have confirmed such an agreement.