Is China's Mega Dam on the Brahmaputra at Risk? New Study Raises Alarming Concerns

Concerns Over Structural Stability of Brahmaputra Dam

Beijing: A recent investigation by Chinese geologists has revealed that an active fault line located beneath the world's largest hydropower project on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet poses potential risks to its structural integrity. This finding contradicts Beijing's assertions that the project would mitigate regional disasters.

Situated near the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh, the project has raised eyebrows among experts.

According to the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post, scientists have indicated that a fracture in the Earth's crust within the eastern Himalayas could severely compromise the infrastructure of this massive hydropower initiative.

In a study published last month in the Chinese-language journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology, researchers highlighted the Paizhen Fault, which has been active since the Pleistocene era, as a significant factor affecting the stability of nearby constructions, including dams, roads, bridges, and tunnels.

The research was conducted under the supervision of the state-owned China Geological Survey.

The findings suggest that prolonged activity along the fault has weakened surrounding rock formations, increasing the vulnerability of nearby engineering projects.

The Paizhen area is part of the reservoir zone for the Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower station, as noted in the study.

China refers to the Brahmaputra as the Yarlung Tsangpo.

Construction of the $167.8 billion dam commenced in July of last year, with expectations to generate over 300 billion kWh of electricity annually, enough to power more than 300 million people.

The dam is being constructed in a deep gorge in the Himalayas, where the Brahmaputra makes a sharp U-turn before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and subsequently Bangladesh.

Despite facing significant engineering challenges due to its location along a tectonic plate boundary prone to earthquakes, China has proceeded with the project.

The Tibetan Plateau, often referred to as the roof of the world, is susceptible to earthquakes due to tectonic plate movements.

The researchers pointed to a magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck Milin in Tibet in 2017, near the northern end of the fault, as evidence of ongoing seismic activity.

Under regional seismic conditions, landslides and collapses could easily occur, posing risks to engineering facilities and personnel.

These recent findings have intensified concerns regarding the project's structural safety, prompting researchers to recommend reinforcing vulnerable slopes and implementing retaining structures to mitigate the risk of landslides.

However, China has consistently attempted to reassure the public about the project's safety, asserting that it adheres to the highest industry standards and will help prevent disasters in the region.

An official statement released in December 2024 emphasized the project's safety and commitment to ecological protection.

Through extensive geological studies and technological advancements, a solid foundation has been established for the secure and high-quality development of the project.

In July of last year, a spokesperson from the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China is responsible in its development of cross-border rivers and possesses extensive experience in constructing hydropower projects.

The spokesperson reiterated that the planning, design, and construction of the hydropower project in the river's lower reaches strictly followed top industry standards while ensuring comprehensive ecological protection.

He also claimed that the project would help avert disasters along the river and would not adversely affect downstream regions.

The Brahmaputra traverses the Tibetan Plateau, creating the world's deepest canyon before entering India.

The study was conducted by geologists from Chengdu University of Technology, the Civil-Military Integration Centre of the China Geological Survey, and the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Natural Resources Observation and Research Station, as reported by the South China Morning Post.

Researchers noted that Pai (also known as Paizhen) village in Tibet, where construction is ongoing, is situated in the Himalayan seismic belt, one of the most earthquake-prone areas in China and its neighboring regions, characterized by intense seismic activity along the Yarlung Tsangpo.

Records of Quaternary tectonic activity provide crucial insights into the structural stability of nearby projects, according to the study.

The Paizhen Fault is part of a network of tectonic faults in the eastern Himalayas formed by the collision of the Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates. The researchers indicated that the fault has remained active since the Early Pleistocene and continues to show significant activity in the current Holocene epoch. Dating of ancient lake sediments suggests that the fault was active as recently as 9,500 years ago.