Impact of US-Israel Conflict on Iran: A Shift in Geopolitical Dynamics

The ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has led to significant shifts in geopolitical dynamics, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz and global oil markets. As the situation escalates, Iran has asserted control over the strait, raising concerns about energy security. The war has also prompted changes in US sanctions on Iranian oil, potentially increasing Iran's nuclear ambitions. With US military bases in the Gulf proving ineffective as deterrents, questions arise about the future of American presence in the region and the broader implications for international relations. This article delves into the complexities of the conflict and its far-reaching consequences.

By Narendra Chaudhary Apr 1, 2026, 23:37 IST

Overview of the Ongoing Conflict

As the conflict between the US and Israel against Iran enters its fifth week, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has become increasingly critical, leading to significant fluctuations in global oil markets. A pressing question arises that officials in Washington seem hesitant to address: since the initiation of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, aimed at neutralizing Iran, the outcomes have largely aligned with Tehran's long-term strategic goals.

The Strait of Hormuz

Prior to the operation, Iran had made threats regarding the Strait of Hormuz but had not taken action. However, following the launch of Operation Epic Fury, Iranian officials quickly asserted control over the strait. Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the IRGC, announced on March 2 that the strait was closed to any vessels attempting to pass through. This was later confirmed by IRGC Navy officials, who stated that the waterway was under their complete control. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol labeled this situation as the most significant threat to energy security in history, cautioning that the implications are still being underestimated.

Changes in Oil Sanctions

Donald Trump's strategy of maximum pressure on Iran, which began in 2018, has been fundamentally altered by the war. Within three weeks, the administration lifted sanctions on Iranian oil already in transit, effectively encouraging Iran to increase its oil exports, a stark contrast to previous policies. Currently, China continues to purchase approximately 90% of Iran's oil, with the IRGC controlling a significant portion of the revenue, thereby financing its military activities.

Nuclear Developments

The war's primary objective was to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, yet it may have inadvertently increased the likelihood of such an outcome. The US intelligence community's assessment for 2025 indicated that Iran was not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, and the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had not authorized the resumption of the weapons program. With Khamenei's death, the constraints he imposed have vanished, leading to calls for Iran to pursue nuclear capabilities.

US Military Presence in the Gulf

Historically, US military bases in the Gulf were seen as a deterrent against Iranian aggression. However, during the initial days of the conflict, Iran targeted all six Gulf Cooperation Council states, demonstrating that these bases failed to provide the intended protection. Reports indicate that Gulf officials are beginning to question the effectiveness of hosting American military installations, which have now made their nations potential targets.

Strategic Gains for Iran

With Brent crude oil prices soaring past $100 per barrel, the traffic of tankers through the Strait has plummeted by over 90%. In terms of Iran's strategic objectives, including leverage over Hormuz, sanctions relief, shifts in nuclear policy, and vulnerabilities of Gulf bases, Tehran appears to be achieving its goals more effectively than anticipated. The situation raises questions about who is truly winning in this complex geopolitical landscape.