How Recent Conflicts Could Impact Global Oil Prices: What to Expect Next Week

As tensions rise in the Middle East due to recent military actions, the oil market braces for potential price fluctuations. Analysts predict that disruptions to oil supplies, particularly from Iran, could lead to significant price increases. With Brent crude already hitting a seven-month high, the implications for global oil prices and US gas prices are concerning. This article delves into the factors at play and what consumers might expect in the coming week.

By Narendra Chaudhary Feb 28, 2026, 22:26 IST

Oil Market Outlook Amid Middle East Tensions

Frankfurt: As oil markets remain closed for the weekend, analysts anticipate potential price fluctuations in the coming week due to the uncertain effects of recent US and Israeli military actions targeting oil supplies in the Middle East.

Prior to the escalation of conflict with Iran, forecasts indicated a brief surge in prices, which would stabilize if oil shipping and infrastructure, including Iranian pipelines and the Kharg Island terminal, remained intact. However, any disruption to oil infrastructure or supply chains, particularly through the critical Strait of Hormuz, could lead to a more significant and prolonged price increase.

Concerns over war have already pushed oil prices higher, with the international benchmark Brent crude reaching a seven-month peak of USD 72.87 on Friday.

Iran currently exports approximately 1.6 million barrels of oil daily, primarily to China, where independent refineries are less affected by US sanctions that limit Iran's ability to sell oil elsewhere. Should this supply be interrupted, Chinese buyers may seek alternatives in the global market, potentially driving prices up further.

The Strait of Hormuz is crucial, as it facilitates the passage of 20% of the world's oil supply daily. Major Middle Eastern exporters, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, rely heavily on this route for their exports.

Despite the tensions, analysts believe Iran is unlikely to attempt to close the strait, as doing so would jeopardize its own exports and negatively impact its primary customer, China.

Limited military actions targeting Iran's nuclear capabilities and the Revolutionary Guard, which do not aim for regime change or full-scale war, could result in price increases of USD 5-10 purely based on market fears, according to Rystad Energy's pre-war analysis.

In contrast, a broader conflict that disrupts tanker traffic could see crude oil prices soar past USD 90 per barrel, with US gas prices potentially exceeding USD 3 per gallon, as projected by Clayton Seigle from the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Currently, US gas prices average around USD 2.