Concerns Rise Over Flood Risks from China's Yarlung Tsangpo River Project
Increased Flood Risks Anticipated for Yarlung Tsangpo River
A file image of Yarlung Tsangpo, the upper course of the Brahmaputra, in China. (Photo:@AmbSanjay_/X)
Beijing, Oct 26: Researchers in China have issued a warning regarding the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, which transitions into the Brahmaputra in India, indicating a potential increase in runoff and flood risks throughout this century.
This alarming prediction coincides with China's ambitious plans to construct what is anticipated to be the largest hydropower project globally on this river, with an estimated budget of USD 168 billion.
Experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Yunnan University analyzed tree-ring data from the southeastern Tibetan Plateau to reconstruct the river's runoff history spanning from 1325 to 2020.
By integrating this historical data with climate projections, they created a model suggesting that river runoff may rise under future climate scenarios, potentially leading to more frequent high-runoff events like floods.
“These findings offer a long-term view of hydroclimatic variability in the Yarlung Tsangpo River and serve as a scientific foundation for evaluating future water-resource risks,” the researchers stated in a paper published in the journal China Science Bulletin on October 8, as reported by a Hong Kong-based media outlet.
The team emphasized that anticipated changes in runoff should be considered in the planning of water-resource development and storage systems, as well as in evaluating transboundary water risks.
Notably, the Tibetan Plateau is warming at approximately twice the global average rate, which is impacting its ice cover and hydrological cycles, according to the researchers.
Alterations in the river's hydrological patterns could have far-reaching effects, potentially influencing drought and flood occurrences across South Asia.
“In recent years, the ongoing climate warming has led to significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin,” they remarked.
These findings emerge amidst broader concerns regarding the engineering and geological challenges associated with China's mega-dam initiative.
In July, geologists in China cautioned that an active fault line located directly beneath the proposed project site could jeopardize its structural integrity.
In a study published in the journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology, researchers urged engineers to enhance slope stability and implement retaining structures to reduce the risks of landslides and collapses, as reported by the same media outlet.
The susceptibility of the Himalayan region to geological hazards was further highlighted by the flash floods that occurred on August 26 along the China-Nepal border.
This disaster, triggered by an ice-and-rock avalanche and the collapse of a temporary river blockage, resulted in nearly 1,500 fatalities and left over 5,500 individuals missing in both Nepal and China, according to reported statistics.
The mega project is being constructed in Medog, also referred to as Motuo in Chinese, situated in a deep Himalayan gorge where the Brahmaputra makes a sharp U-turn before flowing into Arunachal Pradesh and subsequently Bangladesh.
China's Foreign Ministry has previously defended the project, asserting that it would not adversely impact downstream nations and that safety concerns have been addressed through extensive studies and safety protocols over the years.