Concerns Rise Over Bab el-Mandeb Strait Amid Iran's Warnings
Iran's Warning on Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Ali Akbar Velayati, a former Iranian foreign minister and advisor to the supreme leader, has issued a warning that 'The Resistance Front' may target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a crucial maritime passage in the Red Sea through which approximately 12% of global trade flows. This alert comes as the vital shipping route, the Strait of Hormuz, faces ongoing tensions due to the Iran conflict. The Iran-aligned Houthis have previously indicated potential attacks on vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb if hostilities escalate. A blockade of this strait could severely disrupt global trade, creating another bottleneck for oil and natural gas exports from the region. Velayati cautioned on social media that if the US continues its aggressive stance, it could quickly realize how easily global energy and trade can be interrupted with a single action.
Iran is at the forefront of the 'Axis of Resistance,' which encompasses armed factions in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, where Houthi rebels have previously obstructed transit through Bab el-Mandeb by targeting ships.
Understanding Bab el-Mandeb
What is Bab el-Mandeb?
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, known in Arabic as 'Gate of Tears,' serves as a narrow connection between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, linking the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. According to the US Energy Information Agency, around 12% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes through this strait. At its narrowest point, the strait measures 29 kilometers (18 miles), making large container ships particularly susceptible to attacks.
Impact of Bab el-Mandeb's Potential Closure on India
How Bab el-Mandeb's Closure Will Impact India?
This narrow passage is essential for trade between Asia and Europe, raising concerns about how any disruption might affect India's energy supplies and maritime commerce. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait allows vessels traveling between Asia and Europe to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been transporting millions of barrels of crude oil daily through Bab el-Mandeb. Since the onset of the Iran conflict on February 28, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, resulting in rising global oil and gas prices. Tehran claims the Strait is closed to its 'enemies'—the US and its allies.
The potential closure of Bab el-Mandeb could adversely affect India's trade with Europe and West Asia. A considerable share of India's exports to Europe, including engineering products, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and chemicals, transit through the Suez–Red Sea corridor via Bab el-Mandeb. Reports indicate that 80% of India's exports to Europe pass through this route, making Europe particularly vulnerable to energy supply disruptions. Additionally, the Red Sea Route accounts for 50% of India's exports to Europe and North Africa and 30% of imports from these regions, according to CRISIL Ratings data for 2022-23. Any interruption in this shipping lane could have significant repercussions.
Iran's Capability to Block Bab el-Mandeb
Can Iran Block Bab el-Mandeb Strait?
Although Iran does not share a border with the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it maintains a close alliance with the Houthis, the Yemeni rebel group that has previously launched numerous attacks on vessels linked to Israel in the Red Sea in 2023 and 2024 amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Iran or the Houthis do not require a full naval blockade to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Even a limited number of missile strikes, drone assaults, or the placement of naval mines could render the shipping lanes perilous for commercial vessels, leading to an immediate halt in traffic. In such confined waters, the mere threat of an attack can be as impactful as actual strikes. Nabeel Khoury, a former US diplomat, remarked that firing at just a few ships could halt all commercial shipping through the Red Sea.