Ceasefire Between US and Iran: Implications for Strait of Hormuz and Global Oil Supply

A fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has raised hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil route. However, reports indicate that actual traffic remains significantly below normal levels, with only a few vessels passing through since the ceasefire was announced. Experts warn that Iran still holds considerable leverage, and the situation remains uncertain as oil prices fluctuate. As new negotiations are set to take place, the reality on the ground suggests that the promised reopening of this vital shipping lane may not materialize as expected.

By Narendra Chaudhary Apr 10, 2026, 09:03 IST

Current Status of the Ceasefire

allowfullscreen A tentative ceasefire between the United States and Iran has sparked optimism regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil passage. Prior to the conflict that erupted on February 28, over 100 vessels, predominantly oil tankers, traversed this strait daily. This route is crucial as it facilitates approximately 20% of the world's oil supply, making it one of the most significant maritime corridors.

President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire earlier this week, contingent upon Iran permitting the free movement of ships. However, the ceasefire has yet to lead to any significant increase in oil flow in the area. According to Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith, only two vessels have successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire was announced.

Kevin Hassett, a senior economic advisor to Trump, emphasized that even a single oil tanker passing through the strait could significantly alleviate the supply shortage. “We have an agreement with the Iranians to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and we’ll maintain a ceasefire,” Hassett stated during a Fox Business interview. He noted that the arrival of just one large tanker could deliver around 2 million barrels, which would substantially address the current deficit.

Other officials echoed this sentiment. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth remarked that the agreement indicates the strait is open, while White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt mentioned an increase in traffic through the strait and stressed the need for a swift and safe reopening.

Reality Check: What’s Really Happening?

Despite optimistic statements, data and expert analysis reveal a contrasting situation. Kpler's Matt Smith reported that only two oil tankers, including one from Iran, along with a few bulk carriers, have passed through the strait since the ceasefire was declared. This volume is significantly lower than normal and mirrors the restricted traffic observed during the conflict. Analysts suggest that Iran retains considerable leverage despite enduring substantial military strikes.

Energy analyst Amena Bakr pointed out that hundreds of millions of barrels of oil remain stranded and cannot be exported. Industry leaders are also contesting the notion that the strait is open. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, clarified, “Let’s be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Access is being restricted, conditioned, and controlled.” He further noted that vessels now require Iran’s approval to pass and may encounter new tolls, stating, “That is not freedom of navigation. That is coercion.”

Oil prices are reflecting this uncertainty. Initially, prices dipped following the ceasefire announcement but have since surged back above $100 per barrel as skepticism about the resumption of supplies grew. The situation remains precarious as new discussions are anticipated this weekend in Islamabad. Hassett acknowledged that a definitive resolution is still uncertain, stating, “Ultimately, we won’t have complete clarity until negotiations conclude.” Currently, while the ceasefire suggests a potential reopening of this critical oil route, actual traffic remains sluggish, regulated, and far from normal.