Why Axis My India Skipped Exit Polls for West Bengal Elections

Axis My India has decided against releasing exit polls for the West Bengal elections, citing a climate of fear and inadequate sampling as key reasons. Founder Pradeep Gupta revealed that around 70% of voters declined to participate in surveys, leading to unreliable data. In contrast, various agencies have provided differing predictions for the election outcomes, with estimates showing a close contest between TMC and BJP. This article delves into the implications of these decisions and the forecasts from multiple polling agencies, raising questions about the electoral landscape in West Bengal.

By Narendra Chaudhary Apr 30, 2026, 21:33 IST

Axis My India Decides Against Exit Polls

The polling agency known for its election forecasts, Axis My India, has made a significant decision not to release exit polls for the upcoming elections in West Bengal. This has raised questions among the public regarding the rationale behind this choice. The agency has since issued a press release clarifying its reasoning.

According to Pradeep Gupta, the founder of the agency, the prevailing atmosphere of fear and the inability to conduct proper sampling are major factors influencing this decision. He noted that when a large number of individuals refrain from expressing their opinions openly, the survey results can become skewed or misleading. This makes it challenging to present an accurate picture of the electoral landscape.

Reasons for Not Conducting Exit Polls in Bengal

Gupta explained that approximately 70% of voters declined to participate in the survey. This indicates that most individuals were unwilling to share their views after casting their votes. Consequently, the data collected was minimal, leading to doubts about its reliability. The statement revealed that a team of 80 surveyors attempted to engage with around 13,250 people across 294 constituencies, but many avoided responding, resulting in data that did not accurately reflect public sentiment.

In an interview with a media channel, Gupta reiterated the existence of a 'climate of fear.' He stated that if 70-80% of people are not willing to engage in conversation, the sampling method cannot function effectively. Therefore, it was deemed more prudent not to release exit polls under such circumstances.

Diverse Predictions from Other Agencies

Predictions for the West Bengal Assembly elections in 2026 show significant discrepancies among various agencies. According to Matrix, TMC is projected to secure between 125-140 seats, BJP between 146-161, and others between 6-10 seats. Meanwhile, Chanakya Strategies estimates TMC at 130-140 seats, BJP at 150-160, and others at 0-5 seats. People's Pulse presents a starkly different forecast, suggesting TMC could achieve 177-187 seats and BJP 95-110, with others receiving 1-4 seats.

On the other hand, Poll Diary predicts TMC will gain 99-127 seats, BJP 142-171, and others 5-9 seats. Praja Poll gives BJP a substantial lead with 178-208 seats, while TMC is estimated at 85-110 and others at 0-5 seats. P Mark's exit poll suggests TMC will receive 118-138 seats, BJP 150-175, and no seats for others. According to Janmat Polls, TMC is projected to achieve a clear majority with 195-205 seats, while BJP could secure 80-90 and others 1-4 seats. The average across all agencies indicates BJP with 145 seats, TMC with 142, and others with 7, suggesting a very close contest.