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Surge in Silver and Gold ETFs Amid Weaker Dollar

On April 15, Silver and Gold ETFs saw significant gains, driven by a weaker US dollar and disappointing PPI data. Silver ETFs led the rally, with notable increases across various funds. While Gold ETFs also posted gains, the broader market outlook remains uncertain due to potential interest rate delays and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Analysts suggest strategic buying opportunities for both metals, indicating a complex yet promising investment landscape.
 

Market Rally for Precious Metals


On April 15, Silver and Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced a notable increase, with gains reaching up to 6%. This upward trend was primarily fueled by a declining US dollar, which faced pressure following disappointing US producer price index (PPI) figures. The recent PPI data indicated only a slight increase, falling short of market forecasts, which alleviated immediate inflation worries and enhanced overall market sentiment. Nevertheless, the inflation landscape remains intricate, influenced by external factors such as the ongoing tensions between the US and Iran.


A weaker dollar generally favors precious metals, as it makes gold more affordable for international buyers, thereby boosting demand and driving prices higher. This relationship significantly contributed to the gains observed in bullion-related investment products on Wednesday.


Silver ETFs Outperform

Among the various ETFs, Silver ETFs stood out as the top performers, showcasing impressive gains during the trading session. The Axis Silver ETF surged by 5.54%, while the ICICI Prudential Silver ETF and Kotak Silver ETF saw increases of 5.43% and 5.66%, respectively. Other funds, including Mirae Asset Silver ETF, Motilal Oswal Silver ETF, HDFC Silver ETF, and Nippon India Silver ETF, also demonstrated strong performance, reflecting heightened investor interest in silver-backed assets.


Gold ETFs, while not as robust as their silver counterparts, still recorded positive movements. The Nippon India ETF Gold BeES rose approximately 2%, ICICI Prudential Gold ETF increased by 1.5%, and Axis Gold ETF added around 1.7%. Additional funds such as UTI Gold ETF, Edelweiss Gold ETF, HDFC Gold ETF, Quantum Gold ETF, and DSP Gold ETF also experienced upward trends.


Commodity Market Trends and Future Outlook

In the broader commodities market, similar optimism was evident. Precious metal prices received additional support from hopes of renewed diplomatic discussions between the US and Iran, which propelled gold prices up by over 2%. Furthermore, declining oil prices offered some respite from inflation concerns that had previously impacted market sentiment.


Despite the positive trends, the overall outlook remains uncertain. There are concerns that anticipated interest rate cuts might be postponed due to ongoing energy-driven inflation, potentially capping further increases in gold and silver prices. Meanwhile, shares of the Multi Commodity Exchange of India reached a new 52-week high of Rs 2,889 on the NSE, climbing 4.46% in tandem with rising metal prices. Aluminium prices also saw a slight increase, gaining nearly 0.65% in futures trading as traders established new positions amid improving demand from consuming sectors.


Manoj Kumar Jain from Prithvi Finmart noted in a report that gold and silver prices could remain volatile this week, influenced by fluctuations in the dollar index, crude oil prices, and the possibility of a second round of US-Iran peace negotiations. He observed that both metals have shown a breakout on a daily closing basis in the Comex division, suggesting potential for further gains in the near future.


Jain recommends purchasing gold on dips within the Rs 1,53,800–Rs 1,52,200 range, with a stop loss set below Rs 1,51,100 and upside targets of Rs 1,55,500–Rs 1,57,000. For silver, he advises accumulating on dips around Rs 2,47,700–Rs 2,44,000, maintaining a stop loss below Rs 2,39,200, with targets of Rs 2,56,600–Rs 2,61,000.