Surge in Crude Oil Prices Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Crude oil prices are experiencing a significant increase, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions related to the Iran-Israel-US conflict. Brent crude has surged over 60%, with predictions of further price hikes as market analysts assess the impact of ongoing supply disruptions. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar are key factors contributing to this volatility. As experts weigh the potential for price corrections or further increases, the outlook remains uncertain. Read on to discover the latest insights and forecasts for the oil market.

By Narendra Chaudhary Mar 23, 2026, 11:30 IST

Crude Oil Price Trends

Current Market Dynamics: The crude oil market is witnessing a significant upswing, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran-Israel-US conflict, which is disrupting global supply chains. Since the onset of this conflict, Brent crude prices have soared over 60%, jumping from approximately $70 per barrel to nearly $112 as of March 23. The past month alone has seen prices increase by nearly 56%, underscoring the critical nature of the ongoing supply disruptions.

The primary catalyst for this price surge is the intensifying conflict in the region, which has adversely affected vital energy transport routes. The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for global oil shipments, has become a focal point of concern regarding potential supply interruptions.

Additionally, global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply chains are facing challenges due to attacks on energy infrastructure in Qatar, which have reportedly impacted around 17% of the nation’s LNG export capacity, further tightening supply.

Political tensions have escalated as well, with US President Donald Trump issuing a warning that Iran's power plants could face destruction if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened within 48 hours. In retaliation, Iranian Minister Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf cautioned that critical infrastructure in the region could suffer irreversible damage if such threats are acted upon.

Furthermore, Iraq has declared force majeure on oilfields managed by foreign companies, leading to a drastic reduction in production at Basra Oil Company, which has plummeted from 3.3 million barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day, exacerbating global supply concerns.

Market Movements in Global and Domestic Contexts

On Monday, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 52 cents, reaching $98.75 per barrel, continuing its upward trend from the previous session. In India, crude oil futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also increased by 1.12%, reaching Rs 9,360 per barrel, mirroring the global trend.

Future Price Predictions

Goldman Sachs, a leading global investment bank, has updated its forecast, projecting an average price of $85 per barrel for Brent crude by 2026. The bank anticipates prices to hover around $110 in the short term as markets adjust to increased risk premiums. They noted that if uncertainty peaks, prices could reach $135 per barrel if the market requires a risk premium to offset supply destruction over a six-month period, particularly in a scenario of low flows and persistent production losses.

Market analysts suggest that the future trajectory of oil prices will heavily depend on the evolution of geopolitical tensions. Anindya Banerjee from Kotak Securities indicated that any de-escalation could lead to a significant price correction, while ongoing risks might drive prices higher. He stated, “Technically, Brent holding above $100 maintains a bullish outlook, with $120 as a critical resistance level—beyond which prices could rise towards $130–135 in a scenario of continued escalation.”