Market Anticipates Turbulence Amid Renewed US-Iran Conflict

Renewed Military Actions in the Middle East

Following a brief yet intense air conflict lasting 12 days in June 2025, Israel has initiated strikes against Iran, coinciding with a reported offensive by the United States. This resurgence of military activity has once again drawn attention to the Middle East and diminished the chances for a diplomatic resolution regarding Tehran’s nuclear issues with Western nations. As a result, financial markets are preparing for potential volatility when trading resumes on Monday. Analysts predict that the increasing geopolitical tensions could negatively impact stock prices while simultaneously increasing interest in traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver.

Dalal Street Faces Potential Volatility

Market participants are anticipating that Indian stock indices will mirror the global unease. Experts caution that escalating tensions between the US and Iran could lead to selling pressure across international markets, including India’s Dalal Street. According to Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered equity analyst, the Indian stock market might experience a significant gap down at the opening on Monday due to the outbreak of conflict. He warned that supply chains in the Middle East could be disrupted, especially around the crucial Strait of Hormuz, which is responsible for nearly 20% of global oil shipments. If the Nifty 50 index falls below the 24,850–24,800 range, it may decline further toward the 24,500–24,400 levels.

Energy Market Risks Linked to Strait of Hormuz

Sugandha Sachdeva, the Founder of SS WealthStreet, emphasized the significant energy implications of the current tensions. She stated that any disruption or blockage of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a sharp increase in crude oil prices, elevate freight and logistics costs, and reignite inflationary pressures globally. Such developments would complicate central bank policies, necessitating a careful balance between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. Meanwhile, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, anticipates that crude oil prices will open higher but sees limited potential for significant increases. He believes military actions will likely avoid targeting oil infrastructure to prevent extended supply disruptions, projecting that crude oil prices may not exceed $75 per barrel and Brent Crude may remain below $80 per barrel.

Precious Metals as Safe Havens

In light of the heightened uncertainty, precious metals are expected to attract investor interest. Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, noted that the escalation of the US-Iran conflict is likely to drive investors towards gold and silver as safe-haven assets. He predicts a gap-up opening for these metals. He identified resistance levels for COMEX gold at $5,300 per ounce, suggesting that a breakout could elevate domestic prices to between Rs 1,68,000 and Rs 1,70,000 per 10 grams. Regarding silver, he mentioned that a sustained price movement above $95 per ounce could push it towards $100. If the COMEX silver rate breaks and maintains above $95/oz, the spot silver price in India could reach Rs 3,00,000 per kg.

Technical Analysis of Nifty 50

From a technical analysis perspective, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, indicated that immediate resistance for the Nifty 50 index is observed in the 25,300–25,350 range, while a robust support level is established around 25,000–25,050.