Goldman Sachs Predicts Brent Crude Oil Prices May Exceed $100 per Barrel

Goldman Sachs has raised alarms about the potential for Brent crude oil prices to exceed $100 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period. Analysts predict that even a short delay in reopening this vital oil passage could lead to significant price increases, with forecasts suggesting prices could average $120 per barrel in the latter half of 2026 under adverse conditions. The current market situation shows Brent trading around $97 per barrel, following a sharp decline after a ceasefire announcement. This article delves into the implications of these developments for the global oil market and economy.

By Narendra Chaudhary Apr 9, 2026, 13:18 IST

Goldman Sachs' Price Forecast for Brent Crude

Goldman Sachs has issued a cautionary note indicating that Brent crude oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel throughout the remainder of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an additional month. In a recent communication to clients, analysts led by Daan Struyven emphasized the ongoing uncertainty in the oil market, despite a two-week ceasefire announcement between the US and Iran. They referenced US Vice President JD Vance's remarks, labeling the truce as 'fragile.' The analysts stated, 'The situation remains fluid,' and added that the risks to their price predictions are leaning towards the upside.

Goldman's Scenarios

The bank's primary scenario anticipates that oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz will start to improve this weekend, gradually returning to normal levels within a month. Under this scenario, Brent crude is projected to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. However, in a more pessimistic scenario where the reopening of the strait is postponed by a month, Brent prices are expected to exceed $100 per barrel in the latter half of 2026. Should the closure extend further and result in a decline in regional production, prices could surge significantly, with Brent averaging $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Current Market Situation

As of now, Brent crude is trading around $97 per barrel, having dropped sharply by 13% on Wednesday following the ceasefire announcement. During the peak of the crisis, the benchmark reached a high of $119.50 per barrel. US President Donald Trump has asserted that an agreement to ensure the safety and openness of the Strait of Hormuz was established 'a long time ago,' while also warning of potential military action if Iran fails to comply fully. In the meantime, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization has introduced two 'designated safe routes' for vessels near Larak Island close to Bandar Abbas. Goldman Sachs' warning underscores how even a brief delay in reopening this critical oil passage could significantly affect global oil prices and the wider economy in the upcoming months.