What’s Next for US-Iran Nuclear Talks? Insights from Recent Negotiations

Negotiations Resumed in Muscat

Muscat: Recent reports indicate that Iran and the United States are set to continue discussions next week regarding Tehran's swiftly progressing nuclear program. This follows the initial round of talks since President Donald Trump took office again, as stated by Iranian state television.

During the discussions, US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi engaged in a brief conversation, facilitated by the Omani foreign minister, marking a significant moment in the long-standing tensions between the two nations.

Araghchi later confirmed that the next meeting is scheduled for April 19, describing the initial talks as productive. He noted that there were four rounds of indirect communications exchanged during the Muscat discussions.

While American officials have not yet commented on the Iranian claims, the acknowledgment of face-to-face dialogue, albeit short, suggests a positive development in the negotiations.

The discussions commenced around 3:30 PM local time and lasted for over two hours, concluding around 5:50 PM. The convoy believed to be transporting Witkoff returned to Muscat before blending into local traffic near the US Embassy.

The stakes are incredibly high for both nations, who have been adversaries for nearly fifty years. Trump has previously threatened military action against Iran's nuclear ambitions if an agreement is not reached, while Iranian officials have increasingly hinted at pursuing nuclear weapons capabilities with their enriched uranium stockpile.

Details of the Talks

On Saturday afternoon, journalists observed a convoy thought to be carrying Witkoff departing from the Omani Foreign Ministry and heading towards the outskirts of Muscat. Shortly after, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei announced on social media that the "indirect talks" had commenced.

Baghaei explained that the discussions would occur at a location designated by the Omani host, with representatives from both Iran and the US communicating their positions through the Omani Foreign Minister.

About an hour later, Baghaei confirmed on Iranian state television that the talks were ongoing.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran's objective is clear — to protect our national interests," he stated. "We are committed to giving diplomacy a genuine chance, aiming to advance discussions on the nuclear issue and, more importantly, to lift sanctions."

He added, "This is merely the beginning, and it is expected that both sides will present their foundational positions through the Omani mediator. Therefore, we do not anticipate this round of negotiations to be prolonged."

Araghchi also addressed Iranian journalists, stating, "If both sides are willing, we will establish a timetable. However, it is premature to discuss that now. Currently, the negotiations are indirect and focused solely on the nuclear issue, with the intent to reach an equitable agreement that secures the interests of the Iranian populace."

Both Trump and Witkoff have characterized the talks as "direct."

"Our position starts with dismantling your program. That is our stance today," Witkoff mentioned to a media outlet prior to his trip. "This does not exclude the possibility of finding compromises between the two nations."

He further emphasized, "Our red line is that there can be no weaponization of your nuclear capabilities."

Key Issues: Sanctions and Enrichment

While the US could offer sanctions relief to aid Iran's struggling economy, it remains uncertain how much Iran is willing to compromise.

Under the 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran was limited to a small stockpile of uranium enriched to 3.67 percent. Currently, Tehran's stockpile could potentially enable it to develop multiple nuclear weapons, with some material enriched to 60 percent, just a technical step away from weapons-grade levels.

Based on previous negotiations since Trump withdrew the US from the deal in 2018, it is likely that Iran will seek to maintain uranium enrichment at a minimum of 20 percent.

However, Iran is unlikely to abandon its nuclear program entirely, making proposals like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's suggestion of a so-called Libyan solution — which involves dismantling facilities under US supervision — impractical.

Iranians, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have cited the fate of late Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi as a cautionary tale about trusting the United States.