India to Cut Russian Crude Imports Amid New US Sanctions: What’s Next?

India's Shift in Crude Oil Imports

New Delhi: Starting late November, India plans to decrease its direct imports of Russian crude oil due to new sanctions imposed by the United States on major Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, effective from November 21.

Refiners in India, which account for over half of the nation's Russian crude imports, are expected to adhere to these sanctions, which will impact the supply of fuels like petrol and diesel produced from this crude.

According to maritime intelligence firm Kpler, a significant drop in Russian oil shipments is anticipated in December, with a gradual recovery expected by early 2026 through alternative trading routes and intermediaries.

Reliance Industries Ltd, the largest importer, will cease its Russian oil imports, while two state-owned refiners, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd, have also announced their decision to halt future imports.

These three refiners were responsible for over half of the 1.8 million barrels of Russian crude oil imported in the first half of 2025.

In contrast, Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery, which is partially owned by Rosneft and already under EU sanctions, is likely to continue its intake of Russian crude.

Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst at Kpler, noted that Russia was India's leading crude supplier in October, followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Before the sanctions, Russian shipments to India were between 1.6 and 1.8 million barrels per day, but a decline was noted after October 21 as refiners sought to avoid potential exposure to US sanctions.

Experts suggest that while Russian barrels may not completely vanish, future imports will depend on more intricate logistics and trading arrangements.

To compensate for the expected decrease in Russian oil, Indian refiners are looking to increase their imports from regions such as the Middle East, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States. In October, US crude imports reached 568,000 barrels per day, the highest since March 2021, driven by economic factors rather than sanctions. It is projected that flows will stabilize to between 250,000 and 350,000 barrels per day in December and January.

"We anticipate a reduction in Russian crude arrivals post-November 21," Ritolia stated.

"Most Indian refiners are likely to comply with US sanctions and either halt or reduce their direct purchases from Rosneft and Lukoil, leading to a sharp decline in Russian crude imports in December, followed by a gradual recovery through the first quarter of 2026 as new trading intermediaries and routes are established."

Conversely, Nayara Energy's Vadinar refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels per day, is expected to maintain its current procurement strategy, heavily reliant on Russian crude.

"To counterbalance the reduced direct inflow from Russia, Indian refiners are expected to boost their imports from the Middle East, Brazil, Latin America, West Africa, Canada, and the United States," he added.

"However, increased freight costs may limit the extent of this substitution by diminishing arbitrage opportunities."

Overall, refiners are likely to diversify their import sources, with increased shipments from Latin America (including Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Guyana), the United States, West Africa, and the Middle East. While immediate Russian imports may decline starting in December, Russian barrels will still find their way to India through intermediaries.